SHAPESHIFTER

Despite having a 7 for 7 Tuesday, last week's reads were only 70% on with 7 of the 24 horses winning their races, the average price of those winners being 4.10 BFSP, mainly due to Kalk Bay drifting to 7.0 +.

WEAK FAVES FOR 20-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Stratford: no meetings to date
Thirsk: 2 meetings: 4 for 5 (80%)
Wolverhampton: 5 meetings: 13 for 13 (100%)

STRATFORD
2:10 Courting Whitney (Result: 6th/9)
3:10 Peaks Of Fire (2nd)
4:40 Kitegen (NR 12:15)

THIRSK
3:30 Authora (3rd)
4:30 Fayr Fall (2nd)
5:00 See Clearly (1st BFSP 5.50)

WOLVERHAMPTON
4:50 Marinus (3rd)
5:20 Position (2nd)

RESULTS: 6 for 7 strike rate today.  See Clearly  won at Thirsk.  Of the six that didn't win, 5 placed.  Wolverhampton maintains a 100% record.

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Reading through the meetings yesterday, I found it difficult to see through the card clearly, ending up with four over three meetings. 

It came down several factors including an onslaught of trainers and jockeys that hadn't been in the early top slot.  But mainly, when I went through the cards, I found several solid, backable faves and it became clear it was a day for backing rather than laying.

Of the 23 morning faves (19 clear faves and 2 races with joint faves) over the three tracks I studied, ten won their races (43% strike rate).  The return backing a point per horse would have been been just shy of 15 pts (ROI of 73%), some paying better if you had placed your bets earlier.

By the end of the day, of my for selections, three had won confirming my reservations.

- - -

Before you run to the keyboard and click on every early fave feeling you have now stumbled across the 'grail', what happened on Thursday is far from the norm and I underline this by saying there are no 'click and win' systems on betfair.

How do I know this doesn't work?  I keep track of all the fave's in the morning since it is my long-list that I need to go through to find 'weak faves'.  So to review it in the evening takes three minutes.

Why keep track?  It keeps a perspective on how I am doing on the simplest of gauges and see if there is any 'edge' to my approach:  If my strike rate and returns are better than if I laid all the early faves, I'm doing well.  If it is the same or worse, then the approaches used to find 'weak faves' is either unproductive or, most importantly, a waste of time (though I'm aware of someone with a breakeven system he uses to boost his betfair points). 

You can tighten this for tracks, conditions, distances, etc.  As well, if you never bet on a category of racing, i.e. Maiden's, then don't include them in the stats. 

But it does act as a general 'barometer' on performance.


WEAK FAVES FOR 17-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Newbury 1 meeting: 0 for 2 (0%)
Newcastle: 2 meetings: 4 for 4 (100%)

NEWBURY
2:50 Duster

NEWCASTLE
2:30 Party Line
3:00 Sandsend

RESULT: two of three placed but Sandsend won after setting a steady pace and winning just before the line. 

Despite having a perfect seven on Tuesday, it was a below average week with a 17 of 24 strike rate (71%)

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Yesterday, I flagged up Kalk Bay for the second time in as many weeks.  The previous time had been at Redcar on the 1-Aug.

That day, the horse drifted from 5.30 in the morning out to 9.80 BFSP running with the field then catching Daliance at the line.

Yesterday, the horse drifted out to 6.80 during the afternoon while remaining the 3/1 fave on the high street.  Prior to the off, the odds moved in one last time but drifted out to 3F.

Kalk Bay ran a stronger race this time and won eased down at the line.

The reason for the play wasn't to 'chase' the loss of the previous race.  The boxes were ticked when looking at the performances of the horses that raced at Redcar.  This was supported with a Easterby's 1 winner from the last 56 runners aged 4 and up at the track.

But despite all the negatives, the horse drifted and won.

Will I take on Kalk Bay again if the 'ticks' say yes?  I'll cross that bridge when I get there.


WEAK FAVES FOR 16-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Beverley: 3 meetings: 4 for 5 (80%)
Newmarket (July): 1 meeting: 1 for 1 (100%)
Salisbury: 1 meeting: 1 for 1 (100%)

BEVERLEY
5:45 Know No Fear

NEWMARKET (JULY)
4:20 Dutch Supreme

SALISBURY
2:50 Dream Tune
4:30 Represent

RESULT: 3 of 4 won their race with Dutch Supreme coming in third.

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Seven selections didn't hit the line first on Monday pushing August closer to the 80% mark for the month.

A quick method to gauge your return against the amount of events you play is to take the profit on a period and divide it by the number of plays during that time. This figure has nothing to do with ROI or strike rate.  It has more to do with 'time spent' either researching and/or trading.

It simply says that I made a profit of X pounds over Y amount of events (regardless of the amount risked or the outcome). 

This could be extended to include trades.  I tend to count 'events' so that if I back or lay a horse AND trade on the race as well, the figure of profit or loss is for the 'event' rather than breaking it down.

Right now, for 'weak faves', my return per selection is around 30% less than July.  This is the result of the strike-rate down by just over a percent while, at the same time, the average BFSP of horses that won in August is 3.80 so far compared to 3.60 in July. 

August, I am averaging 6.6 selections per day while in July the average was 5.5.

Though the differences aren't enough to change my approach, by setting out these parameters, I feel I can see at a glance how effective my strategies are and how to focus my time.

Improvements will come as I have enough data on where the 'weak fave' approach is most effective.


WEAK FAVES FOR 15-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Beverley: 2 meetings: 2 for 2 (100%)
Salisbury: No selections to date

BEVERLEY
3:15 Bogsnog
3:50 Fear Nothing
4:25 Kalk Bay

SALISBURY
4:40 Monopoli

If there are selections for KEMPTON and/or SOUTHWELL, they will be posted by 4:45

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I have a solid strike rate at Lingfield.  Over six meetings, I am 14 for 16 (88%). 

But after one pass through the form form Monday's meeting, I had no selections, so moved onto Kempton and Ffos Las.

When I returned to Lingfield, I did another pass without a solid selection.

The third pass produced one horse; Watheeq.  But it felt forced and passed on the race.

Despite historically doing well at the course, it had no influence on the read.  All the early odds fave's, regardless of their finishing positions,  had been in races involving decent competition who had produced subsequent results.  It was as obvious as when the opposite is apparent.

Watheeq won his race by a length.

Here's how Lingfield panned out.

Of the seven early odd 'faves':
4 remained fave's at race time.
3 drifted from their 11AM price to 2F at the off.

5 of 7 'early faves' won their race.

Both horses that lost came in second, Tango Sky losing by a shoulder.

A perfect example of sticking to your read and don't force the selections when they don't come.

- - -

At Kempton, the opposite happened.  I ended up with selections in four of the seven races.  I went through the four a second time but decided to go with it.  In the past two months, at various tracks, I have had five clean sheets when I have had four to five selections.  So my confidence out weighs the high percentage of the card that I have flagged up.

2 of 4 won their race.  And on review of the selections and the results, perhaps I should have passed on Brigadoon who was given 7 lbs for having Michael Murphy on board.

Ffos Las remained 100% on a day where 3 of 7 early odds fave's won their race.

- - -

WEAK FAVES FOR 14-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Ayr: 5 meetings: 10 for 13 (77%)
Bath: 4 meetings: 5 for 11 (45%)
Wolverhampton: 4 meetings: 11 for 11 (100%)

AYR
2:50 Giorgios Dragon
3:20 Crown Counsel
3:50 Hawdyerwheesht

BATH
3:00 Fire King
5:00 Croquembouche

WOLVERHAMPTON
4:40 Porgy
5:10 Princess Gail

RESULT: All seven selections lost.  Both horses were unplaced at Bath while all three at Ayr came in 2nd.  So far, this week, 7 of 13 selections have come in second.

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A day like today only comes around every 4 years.  Post Summer Olympic 'Blues".

Mid-week, I thought that I had 'hit the wall' with Olympic coverage.  One of the seventeen channels covering the event was always on in the background.  But I got my second wind and enjoyed the rush of sports offered up in the final days.

I also enjoyed the mostly 'football-free' sports sections of the papers.  Usually for three weeks leading up to the season, we are bombarded with fictional controversy , previews and players stating how unhappy they are.  Instead, the well-paid kickers-of-ball were relegated behind the accomplishments of athletes from so many different backgrounds.  No event compares to the Olympics where accountants and school teachers find themselves applauded by the world or a Saturday where from coffee through to dinner, you witness personal bests and winning achievements.

It will be hard to adjust to being bombarded by the many ego-fueled footballers and managers with their linear views and attitude of self-importance.

- - -

Last Wednesday, I said that my view on long term gains is to remain focused through 'break even' periods till you get a streak. 

That day, a streak started and continued into Thursday with 11 selections.  The success carried over into Friday landing 4 for 5.

Approaching the mid-way of August, the strike rate is 77% (41 for 53) with 51% horses finishing outside the frame.  Last week, the average price of any of the winning horses was 3.10 (BFSP), an improvement on the week before.


WEAK FAVES FOR 13-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Ffos Las: 1 meetings: 2 for 2 (100%)
Kempton: 3 meetings: 4 for 5 (80%)

FFOS LAS
3:20 Croeso Mawr
5:20 Filatore

KEMPTON
3:00 Altaria
4:30 Hannibal Hayes
5:00 Jamarjo
5:30 Brigadoon

RESULT: Ffos Las went 2 for 2 to maintain the 100% strike-rate at the track though both came in 2nd.  Kempton, Jamarjo and Brigadoon won their races, the latter drifting out to 9/2.

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Yesterday was the the second day in a row of getting 6 for 7 selections right.  The exception was Tidal Wave who won at Brighton at 2.88 BFSP.  However, unlike the day before where six selections finished outside the frame,  five finished in the top three.

I took on Varnish with Richard Hughes on board for the 6th time.  The four recent rides had produced a win and three 2nds.  As well, the previous day, the Hannon/Hughes partnership had produced two of the jockey's three wins at the track.  But the read indicated to me that yesterday would not only be a challenging step up in distance but, to date, previous fields hadn't produced decent results since racing with Varnish.  Racing mid-field, the combination of distance and competition proved too much and the horse tailed off in the final furlong finishing well behind the eventual winner.

The result at Yarmouth was excellent but not because of the perfect 4 for 4 on selections. For me, it was because of the seven early faves (not necessarily the faves at the off), the two that won their races were among the three I passed on. 

I hadn't done a read in the past two months at Haydock, so I approached the race with caution.  I produced a list of three but only went with Cape Rising.  An interesting stat from the meeting:  of the eight early market faves at the course, NONE won their race.  So going with all three would have produced positive results but unlike Yarmouth, it wouldn't have produced a true gauge on how well the 'weak fave' approach would work at the track.

WEAK FAVES FOR 10-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Brighton: 4 meetings: 10 for 12 (83%)
Lingfield: 5 meetings: 12 for 13 (92%)
Musselburgh: 3 meetings: 1 for 3 (33%)

BRIGHTON
4:40 Thecornishcowboy

LINGFIELD
3:20 Imjin River
4:20 Duke Of Destiny

MUSSELBURGH
3:30 Bradbury
5:00 Military Call

RESULT: 4 for 5 on the day, the winner being Duke Of Destiny (BFSP 2.90). The first two days of the week was well below average on performance (9 for 14 - 64%).  The last three days was 16 for 19 bringing the strike rate for the week up to 76%.

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Yesterday was a turn-around from how the week started.  6 of 7 selections not only lost their races but all finished outside the place markets.  The only winner was Kashmiri Star who had a nice jump at the start and a solid pace throughout the race.

I also took on Pharoh Jake for the third time in three weeks.  I hesitated on the decision since I didn't want to fall into the 'trap' of giving back my previous gains on the horse in 70 seconds.  But the read of no solid competition to date coupled with performance against those fields said that once again the opening market had the race wrong.

The previous two times, Pharoh Jake drifted before the off.  This time, the horse remained favorite but, in the end, finished 6th of 7.

As mentioned yesterday, breaking even can often frustrate a punter and you find yourself 'searching' for new angles or forcing a read to make gains.  Instead, I stuck to what I know, chose two tracks to focus hard on, and end the day with solid gains.


WEAK FAVES FOR 9-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Brighton: 3 meetings - 9 for 10 (90%)
Haydock: no selections to date
Yarmouth: 4 meetings - 9 for 11 (82%)

BRIGHTON
3:50 Varnish
5:55 Tidal Run

HAYDOCK
5:45 Cape Rising

YARMOUTH
3:00 Yes Its The Boy
4:30 Ryan Style
5:00 Twin Shadow
5:30 Zarosa

RESULT: another 6 for 7 days.  Tidal Wave won at Brighton at BFSP 2.88.

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I once told a mentor of mine that I was frustrated because my recent run of bets was 'breaking even'.  He raised his eyebrows and smiled.  "You're frustrated because you're breaking even."  He then shook his head.

He had explained to me that gains were based on streaks.  In between came periods when you had to deal with losses and that over a period, if you were breaking even, this was a good thing.

- - -

The stand-out stat for me on my performance isn't the low percentage of successful calls but the number that have placed.  I've always maintained around a 50% strike-rate on placing (based on betfairs markets. i.e. ).  But this week, 79% (11 of 14), 5 of those 2nd.

At the same time, the average BFSP on horses that won this week is 3.4, down from the average of 3.60 through July.

WEAK FAVES FOR 8-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

BRIGHTON
2:50 Kashmiri Star
3:50 Great Shot
4:50 Emperors Waltz
5:50 Pharoh Jake

NEWCASTLE
2:10 Old Man Clegg
4:40 Emily Hall
5:10 Celestial Dawn

RESULTS: 6 of 7 were unplaced.  Kashmiri Star won at Brighton (3.10 BFSP).

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Shortly after the first two horses won yesterday, I received a message asking if Kelly's Eye is a back or a lay.  Granted, it was followed by a 'wink' but it shows you how you have to hold firm to your approach.

It is so easily to have your confidence shaken and the doubts come in.  All the psychology that trickles in with two bad calls to start your week.

Though the next two calls were successful, it did weigh on my approach to the evening.

I had been fence sitting on whether to take on Carlisle and the lady jockeys but with mixed results to date at the track, I decided to glance at the card but leave it for the night.

Having a 100% record on Wolverhampton, I went through the cards and settled on one play for the evening, the conservative approach definitely because of the 50% strike rate in the afternoon.

Today, the results of yesterday are left behind and confidence in my ability to read the races back to the level it should be. 


WEAK FAVES FOR 7-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

BATH
2:30 Waspy
4:30 Mollyow
5:30 The Quarterjack

Catterick
4:50 Eijaaz
5:20 Mick Slates (Non-runner)

Wolverhampton
2:40 Invigilator

KEMPTON (added 5:45)
6:25 If I Were A Boy
8:55 Lady Mango

RIPON (added 5:45)
6:35 Dusty Storm
8:05 Gabrials Star

RESULT: Wolverhampton remains 100% and a non-runner meant Catterick Bridge was 1/1. Kempton was 2/2 but both Ripon and Bath meetings finished negative.  Overall, 6 for 9 translating into a 66% strike rate.

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