SHAPESHIFTER

Reading through the meetings yesterday, I found it difficult to see through the card clearly, ending up with four over three meetings. 

It came down several factors including an onslaught of trainers and jockeys that hadn't been in the early top slot.  But mainly, when I went through the cards, I found several solid, backable faves and it became clear it was a day for backing rather than laying.

Of the 23 morning faves (19 clear faves and 2 races with joint faves) over the three tracks I studied, ten won their races (43% strike rate).  The return backing a point per horse would have been been just shy of 15 pts (ROI of 73%), some paying better if you had placed your bets earlier.

By the end of the day, of my for selections, three had won confirming my reservations.

- - -

Before you run to the keyboard and click on every early fave feeling you have now stumbled across the 'grail', what happened on Thursday is far from the norm and I underline this by saying there are no 'click and win' systems on betfair.

How do I know this doesn't work?  I keep track of all the fave's in the morning since it is my long-list that I need to go through to find 'weak faves'.  So to review it in the evening takes three minutes.

Why keep track?  It keeps a perspective on how I am doing on the simplest of gauges and see if there is any 'edge' to my approach:  If my strike rate and returns are better than if I laid all the early faves, I'm doing well.  If it is the same or worse, then the approaches used to find 'weak faves' is either unproductive or, most importantly, a waste of time (though I'm aware of someone with a breakeven system he uses to boost his betfair points). 

You can tighten this for tracks, conditions, distances, etc.  As well, if you never bet on a category of racing, i.e. Maiden's, then don't include them in the stats. 

But it does act as a general 'barometer' on performance.


WEAK FAVES FOR 17-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Newbury 1 meeting: 0 for 2 (0%)
Newcastle: 2 meetings: 4 for 4 (100%)

NEWBURY
2:50 Duster

NEWCASTLE
2:30 Party Line
3:00 Sandsend

RESULT: two of three placed but Sandsend won after setting a steady pace and winning just before the line. 

Despite having a perfect seven on Tuesday, it was a below average week with a 17 of 24 strike rate (71%)

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