SHAPESHIFTER

5 RACES COVERED FOR CHELTENHAM DAY 1


Over the past six months, races were captured on the hard disc and notes were taken all with the intention of taking a shot at Cheltenham.

In the past, I sometimes found myself overwhelmed by the form, the trainers, the headlines.  This year, yes, a few articles read but I focused hard on forming my own opinions on the races and hoped that come the day the prices would reflect better value than my expectations.

My usual approach is to discuss on the blog my views on sifting through the races on the day and making selections, more dealing with the post-mortem the next day to offer insight.

Every person on the forum has their views on today's racing so mine is just one more of many.

I'll be staying true to my personal tactics so, essentially, will live and die by my own sword.  The only difference is rather than keeping notes on the track for future races, I'll find myself reviewing the winners and losers and quickly incorporate it into the coming days and hopefully find a few nice priced winners that way.

Good luck to everyone through the week.  May all the horses and jockey's come home safe and every punter have their moment.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS FOR DAY ONE AT CHELTENHAM

SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE

All eyes are on the Nicky Henderson’s My Tent Or Yours to start the festival off on a good note for favourite backers.

But looking at the horse’s runs, I feel the competition hasn’t put the horse under any pressure and I wonder how it will react if hit with one, two or more challenges over the 2 miles.

I wanted to consider Dodging Bullets at the price but none of this season’s races made my notes as overly impressive. 

For me, the two strongest horses in the field have Irish form: Jezki and Champagne Fever. 

Jezki improved with each of its four wins back to October while Champagne Fever made all in February at Leopardstown and earned the victory under pressure from Bright New Dawn who further supported the result by winning at Thurles nineteen days later. 

I also think that Leopardstown might not have the undulations of Cheltenham but it is a much stiffer track and more testing than those travelled by My Tent Or Yours.  Robbie Power’s task will be to maximize the portions of the track where Jeski can work the flat to its advantage.  I also think that when it comes down to the run-in, the mid-race pressure could take its toll on the Nicky Henderson horse.

Jezki WIN
Champagne Fever EW

_________________________

THE ARKLE

Like everyone, I ended up cutting this race down to the two principles; Simonsig and Overturn.

Both are unbeaten over fences but I feel the head-to-head will better suit Overturn.

The Donald McCain horse is a consistent jumper that allows Jason Maguire to find the right moments to notch up the pace.  And when the moment comes, the horse will put its head down and go for a gallop that sustains then extends itself very quickly.

The challenge for Barry Geraghty will be to try to get Simonsig to settle early while at the same time seeing Jason Maguire having the option to have Overturn try to make all. 

I also feel that in cross-form analysis, like my views on the previous race, Simonsig hasn’t had the same level of competition as Overturn so this makes the prospect of odds on for the fave not a value play.

Pundits have been focused on the fact that Donald McCain seems to be avoiding ground with too much give in it.  Perhaps this will be the undoing but my view is the make-up of the race will suit the horse more than the grey making the second fave the value bet.

Overturn win

_________________________

THE JLT

24 runners all with recent form (though Our Mick unseated Jason Maguire after some bumping) so a fair amount of notes covering all the field.

I slept on this one until this morning and decided that I would put more weight on my own ratings.

Merry King is, in my opinion, one of Jonjo O’Neill’s best runners of the week.  The horse has produced steady times and has been running better than its mark of 139.  The last run at Haydock, jockey Richie McLernon turned the race up and fought hard for the win in testing ground.  The time produced to the horse was equivalent to runs by others today that have run recently on better ground.

I might be alone on this one but The Package may only have 2 wins from 14 attempts in chasers, the win at Wincanton was over a greater distance today and I think the horse showed character in defeat behind Bobs Worth,  Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant off a much higher mark than today.  That day, I felt Tom Scudamore possibly tried to hard and forced the horse through the race.  Timmy Murphy returns to pilot the horse for the 20th time.

The Merry King Win
The Package EW

_________________________

CHAMPION HURDLE

Zarkander comes into the race recently beating Rock On Ruby and Grandouet in December and Khyber Kim last time out at Wincanton.

The horse has run over more testing ground than today and while the previews on the race say this is all about Hurricane Flyer, for me, preparation reads that Paul Nichols might have his first winner of the week with Daryl Jacob on board.

This will be a highly tactical race with the possibility of Rock On Ruby trying to get to the front early with first time blinkers and upping the pace.  A few weeks ago, the media focused on others in the race who are now available at each way prices, Zarkander surviving the scrutiny. 

For me, question marks on how stiff the competition has been for Hurricane Flyer.  For me, it comes down to value and Zarkander is the play in the Champion Hurdle

Zarkandar Win

________________________


REWARDS4RAACING NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE


This was the last race I looked at last night and despite making decisive decisions on the others, I found myself trying to hard to find the angle or edge that would bring one stand-out horse to the forefront, perhaps overwhelmed by all the recent form, all with notes.

Waking to the news about the inspection made me wait a bit longer before finding the play to end day one with.

The Druid’s Nephew fell into ‘one pace’ in the end at Kempton over 3 miles but the next race at Wincanton, the horse proved itself beating two horses with competitive form; Grandioso and Tony Star.

Carlito Brigante is Gordon’s Elliot best chance today.  The horse won a novices’ chase at Cheltenham in October off a mark of 147.  Davy Russell has four wins and three seconds from fifteen rides on Carlito Brigante so I’m confident that he’ll be able to deal with the pace that is more likely to be dictated by others.

The ground by ends day will have had some racing and think that will benefit the two selections.

The Druid’s Nephew Win
Carlito Brigante EW


SUMMARY

Jezki WIN (result: 3rd) -1.00
Champagne Fever EW (1st BFSP 5.89/2.18) +2.90 (in from 9/1+ when posting)

Overturn WIN (4th) -1.00

The Merry King Win (13th) -1.00
The Package EW (pulled up) -1.00

Zarkandar Win (4th) -1.00


The Druid’s Nephew Win (6th) -1.00
Carlito Brigante EW (hampered and pulled up)-1.00


SUMMARY The day started well with Champagne Fever winning after being bet in from 9/1+ (12% strike-rate).  A risk of 8 points would have returned a LSP loss of -4.10 (-50% ROI)






         SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: 'RATE' AND/OR 'FOLLOW' THE BLOG***


           *****Your comments and views are always welcomed******