SHAPESHIFTER

4 RACES FOR DAY TWO AT CHELTENHAM

Cheltenham started on a winning note for me with Champagne Fever winning the delayed start.  The horse went off just shy of 5/1 on betfair after support brought it in from the 9/1 that was on offer until the plunge.

After that, no real success and as each of my selection faded from contention, I found myself quickly changing modes to cheer on some of fantastic racing.  It was great seeing horses in such fantastic condition.  As well, as I poured another cup of coffee late last night to review the times, all the horses in the finishes showed incredible improvement.

As a 'value hunter', you sometimes feel like you aren't part of the big wins.  But this game is all about opinions and, as I said yesterday, I'll stick to my tactics and will hopefully come out of the week with a bigger bank than I started with and, either way, a little wiser with more knowledge on what it takes to find a winner at Cheltenham.

Best of luck on your day.


THE NEPTUNE (2:05)

I can’t put anyone off backing the fave.  The small field will suit Ponte Alexandre making it a worthy favourite but recent form has been over heavy and the fields not as competitive as today.

The New One has done nothing wrong this season.  The Twiston-Davies horse raced over the new course in January, a neck behind At Fisher’s Cross and ahead of Coneygree who had form at the track, as well.

On my own ratings, The New One’s run in October was one of the fastest of the month and with today’s ground being better than yesterday, I have confidence that the Sam Twiston-Davies will have the measure of the pace, ride the undulations as he did yesterday in the last and pressure the fave sooner than expected.

I gave Rule The World and Davy Russells last run at Naas 5 stars.  The jockey ‘stalked’ the leaders perfectly that day and took the race in stages before winning by 13 lengths over Minsk.  A winner from yesterday’s racing, Champagne Fever, was also in the race and tried to make all but faded to third.

The New One Win
Rule The World EW

At posting: The New One 6.20, Rule The World 8.00/2.32

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THE RSA CHASE

The weather has made this into a test of stamina and Dynaste out, the opinions have changed from who will challenge to who will win.

Post-analysis of Boston Bob constantly says that the horse takes ages to get to speed.  Under Ruby Walsh, yes, I can see that.  But last time out, Paul Townend positioned the Mullins horse perfectly.  He is on board again today and with better ground than recent races in Ireland, and will be able to pace the horse without having to push it through the early part of the race and will press the stayer, Unioniste.

The David Pipe horse Goulanes likes winning by a neck.  Infact, the last three wins read head/neck/neck.  The horse shows that it will go to battle in the finish, recently beating Super Duty.  As disappointed with The Druid’s Nephew’s run yesterday, Tom Scudamore got extra out of His 80/1 runner His Excellency. He has won three times on the horse and will hopefully excel on today’s going.

Boston Bob Win
Goulanes EW

At posting: Boston Bob 6.0, Goulanes 10.5/3.20

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THE CORAL CUP (4:00) 

***BETFAIR PAYING 5 PLACES ON SPORTSBOOK (not on exchange)***

Twenty eight runners makes a value EW race for punters. 

A P McCoy has stepped up and will ride Pendra and I rank it as his best chance on day two.  The horse raced consistently at Plumpton and on my own ratings, improved when running at Sandown in January.  The ability to take the longer distance is a question mark but hoping A P can pace the horse in the early going.

Only at Cheltenham can you finde a horse with a string of four wins since December available at 20/1.  Master Of The Sea runs for the Twiston-Davies yard and has experience over longer distances and though carrying more weight than its recent run at Newbury, the horse has shown steady improvement on my ratings and is a value EW play.

Pendra Win
Master Of The Sea EW

At posting: Pendra 9.60, Master Of The Sea 21.00/4.80




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THE FRED WINTER (4:40)

***BETFAIR PAYING 5 PLACES ON SPORTSBOOK (not on exchange)***


24 runners over 16 furlongs ensures a battle to be in the front early on and then hold the race.

What impressed me with Bordoni was that despite mistakes at Warwick in December, when Denis O'Regan gave it reminders it remained in the race and finished 2nd.  This can come in handy when the pace band bumping start to take its toll on the field.  The less testing conditions will suit the horse and is, in my opinion, John Ferguson's best chance at Cheltenham glory.

I expected Counsel to be around 10/1 and horse opened up at 16's and has been creeping in.  Donald McCain has, again, mentioned his concerns with the ground but looking at yesterday's times, improved ground could set this up as a challenge for the frame and possibly a surprise win for both the yard and jockey Jason Maguire.

Bordoni WIN
Counsel EW

At posting: Bordoni 9.60, Counsel 15.5/4.30


SUMMARY
The New One (result 1st BFSP 4.52) +3.40  *in from 6.20
Rule The World EW (2nd BFSP 6.41/1.95) -0.05 *in from 8.00/1.95 

Boston Bob Win (fell when leading at last) -1.00 
Goulanes EW (6th) -1.00

Pendra Win (17th) -1.00 
Master Of The Sea EW (4th BFSP 13.30/4.00) +1.45 *in from 20.00/5.00

Bordoni WIN (unplaced) -1.00
Counsel EW (unplaced) -1.00

Once again, the first race of the day does great finding the winner and the each-way came in second (12% strike-rate).  Master Of The Sea also placed.  A risk of 8 points would have returned a LSP loss of -0.20



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