SHAPESHIFTER

Like Tuesday, yesterday started with a perfect read on the race, The New One winning and the each play following in second.  In one race, the loss on day one recovered and from a financial point of view, Cheltenham started over again.

Leading into Cheltenham, I had watched the Twiston-Davies runners closely.  As a jockey, Sam has a style when taking on certain distances.  He has the measures of the horses early on and is able to judge their 'tanks'.  He also comes across as a jockey who researches his competition.  His abilities to partner a horse came together on The New One.

His approach also landed each way returns with Master Of The Sea working his way into fourth after a crowded race, my win bet Pendra not wanting to gear up and going completely flat when McCoy positioned him to join the front of the pack, the leaders kicking smoke up.

So it felt good to make money off of a yard I had targeted.  Yes, a gamble since they have been ravaged by a virus that set back their season but sometimes it takes faith in a jockey and trainer simply doing their best.

Boston Bob was the difference between profit and loss yesterday.  The fall turned a (potential) 6 point win into a 1 point loss.  But as I watched the race, three strides before the fence, I had my concerns on the run in simply because two other horses were feeding off each other and would land behind the leader then adrenaline between horses and jockey's would turn to a battle to the line.  But, it's all about jumping at Cheltenham and others simply did it better.

And, again, results aside, there have been some wonderful racing to watch and win or lose over the four days, you have to feel we are getting our money's worth.



Best of luck with your day.


THE JEWSON

During the week, I watched some 'bankers' rather than bet on them.  Today, though, all arrows point at Dynaste.  The horse and jockey, Tom Scudamore, seem to have the measure of those in the field that challenge for the win.  There is a confidence and consistently in the jumping and David Pipe has said that this will be an 'easier race' after gauging the conditions leading up to the race. 

My confidence on this is to place 2 points on the horse. 

Though all the talk centers around Captain Conan and Aupcharlie, I have doubts on both runners and targeted a horse that I feel is an value EW play.  Nicky Henderson's other runner is Molotof with AP McCoy on board.  With experience and decent times over distances greater than today, if there are any parts of the track that throw in some give, Molotof will push through it.

My feeling is that McCoy's lack of wins has kept the price out and I see this as excellent value.

Dynaste Win (2 points)
Molotof EW (1 point)

Prices at posting: Dynaste 2.56 / Molotof 32.00/7.00

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THE RYANAIR CHASE

First Lieutenant has Davy Russel on board who has been getting the best out of his horses this week and this stamps confidence that the horse will live up to the gutsy drive this horse has.  Again, for me the ability to run longer distances will come into play to have the edge through the undulations.  Cue Card is a worthy opponent but when First Lieutenant finished 3rd at Newbury, I rated the run as 5 star in defeat.

Like the fave, I'm banking on Menorah to prove that Newbury form is strong at Cheltenham.  A decent time in defeat in February, I'm hoping the successful partnership with Richard Johnson will be the catalyst to challenge for the front.

First Lieutenant Win
Menorah EW

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WORLD HURDLE (3:20)

The two in the front of the betting ran within a breath of each other, their last runs before today.  But leading up to the festival I have reviewed the winners and once you hit that 20 furlong distance at Cheltenham, experience and form at longer distances must weigh in.

For that, Reve De Sivola becomes the value bet on the race.  Coupled with a second behind Big Bucks at Newbury, I think that come the finish, if the favourite is still in the mix, though many say that there will be a reversal from the last time they met, I see this as value and Richard Johnson will work hard to retain a 100% record with the horse.

I was not alone this week with the note that if the ground improved just slightly, Smad Place will find a bit extra over the 3 miles.  The horse has experience against the principles and though the French horse is surrounded by Irish each-way opportunities, if the race unfolds with the pace picking up sooner than expected, Smad Place is more likely to be a leader than a follower.


Reve De Sivola Win
Smad Place EW

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CHALLENGE CUP

After two weeks of going through notes, there are times you can't over think a bet.  Before the run of Irish winners, I had circled this horse.  Donald McCain led into the week 'concerned' about the going and today will be suitable for Super Duty.  With the exception of a fall, the trainer has placed the horse well and it has managed 1st's and 2nd's including a win at Cheltenham in December.  Normally piloted by Jason Maguire, the race is for Amateur jockey's.  Those who follow the blog know I normally put a line through this type of race but media reports earlier in the year had the trainer saying he had booked Derek O'Connor long in advance so you can be certain that the jockey with two wins at the track has been involved in the prep. 

Super Duty EW



SUMMARY
Dynaste Win (result: 2nd) -2.00 (festival banker)
Molotof EW (8th) -1.00

First Lieutenant Win (2nd) -1.00
Menorah EW (pulled up) -1.00

Reve De Sivola Win (4th) -1.00
Smad Place EW (3rd BFSP 14.50/3.75) +0.85

Super Duty EW (2nd BFSP 8.56/2.62) +0.25

SUMMARY A day without a winner though two each ways returned dividends.  A total of 8 units recommended returned a loss of -4.90.  For performance calculations, a risk of 7 points would have returned a LSP loss of -3.90

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