SHAPESHIFTER

SELECTIONS FOR GOLD CUP DAY


I found myself caught between that world again as someone that invests in a horses performance and one who is enthralled with the quality of the horses and the performances by the jockeys.

With the exception of Super Duty who lived up to expectations, be it 2nd at the line, as each of my selections have faded from contention I found myself cheering on the finish.

I made a couple of mistakes on my day.  First, I got caught up in the Reve De Sivola -v- Oscar Whiskey aspect of the World Hurdle.  Part of my approach is to sit down and compare horses that I feel are the principles (and not necessary at the top of the betting) then once that is done, I then compare that once selection to the entire field. 

What this leads to is I've created a 'mark' for the race that others have to beat.  Instead, I selected Reve De Sivola THEN looked at the rest of the field

On my sheet, I narrowed it to two; Smad Place and Solwit.  After readdressing those two, I focused on a note that focused on the going while a question mark remained with Solwit.

We know the result of Solwit winning and Reve De Sivola doing me a favour by finishing behind my EW play.  But if I had stuck to my approach, any other time when selecting two, I would have gone with those two and at those odds, probably both each way.

The other mistake was overlooking the winner of the Jewson, Benefficient.  I had circled that half way through Wednesday's racing as, in my opinion, Newbury form was a huge tick in the plus column.  I still felt Molotof was a value play at the odds but when I put those figures up against those of the eventual winner, I missed a great opportunity to land a big-priced winner at the Cheltenham festival. 

File it under the 'one that got away.'


All said and done, some each way dividends kept the day from some 'black hole' figure and with a day to go, if I went zero on the day, it would work out to 3 points a day in exchange for living Cheltenham to its fullest from the build-up, the sifting through months of notes, the enjoyment of reliving some great races back over the year and, of course, the week of racing.

And, after yesterday's need to take two jockey's to hospital, my respect for the men who pilot our selections is only further solidied.

I've also will walk away with more knowledge on taking on a great event like this that will hopefully not only pay dividends next year but help me through the process of the other major events coming up through 2013.

Roll on day four!!




THE JCB (1:30)

While others can discuss the front of the racing, I'm taking a angle on backing a trainer who earlier this week had a horse that showed incredible improvement and a jockey who is getting extra out of his mounts.

John Quinn brings two into the race and I'm going with Kashmir Peak with Dougie Costello joining in on day four.  Though unseating his rider last time out, the previous runs showed power in the finish which I feel will come into play.

Lac Fontana is trained by Paul Nichols who has had a disappointing week.  I backed the jockey/trainer team with Zarkandar earlier in the week but watching Daryl Jacob through the week, his ability to keep long odds horses in the race has been outstanding.

With some doubts on the front three in the betting, I'm taking two each way bets in the first race of the day.

Kashmir Peak EW
Lac Fontana EW



Prices at posting:Kashmir Peak 18.5, Lac Fontana 23.00

_______________________________________

ALBERT BARTLETT 2:40

With a non-runner changing the betting, I have a stance with the front two in the market. 

At Fisher's Cross made my notebook from a Newbury run over 19 furlongs when some mistakes were made early on that would have caused some horses to break focus and never get into rhythm.  The opposite happened and the horse won its 2nd of the season and followed up with two at Cheltenham.

The track form is transparent and with word that the going will be closer to soft than Good to soft, any give won't be a problem for the horse and hopefully a winner for AP McCoy and trainer Rebecca Curtis.

Earlier this week, I hilighted the Twiston-Davies yard and they returned dividends on day two with The New One winning and Master Of The Sea working into a place to return each-way dividends.

Yesterday, the return to form for the stable continued with Same Difference winning at 16/1 and Changing Times making the frame in the Jewson at 100/1.

So backing them blind would have given excellent returns.  But I waited until today to back African Gold EW.  With Ballycasey out of the race, the horse moves up in the betting but with two runs at Newbury with decent times and the ability to work through soft and heavy, there is a step up in distance but as I said earlier this week, my confidence in Sam Twiston-davies to gauge the horse in the early going as he has done this week is a big factor.

At Fisher's Cross WIN
African Gold EW

prices at posting: At Fisher's Cross 2.86/African Gold 6.20
_______________________________________

THE GOLD CUP

My Cheltenham Festival finishes with the Gold Cup.

Siviniciaco Conti improved through the fall, the run at Newbury in February finished with extra in the tank in soft conditions.  The price will be out because of the week Paul Nicholls is having but there are no worries about Ruby Walsh whose wins have been confident and impressive on the horse.

The money will come for Long Run and understandably so. The run February 2012 still ranks number one against ratings over 13 months and the run at Kempton in heavy ground, the horse showed its abillity to perform under pressure.


Silviniaco Conti Win
Long Run EW

Prices at posting Silviniaco Conti 5.90, Long Run 5.90


_______________________________________


SUMMARY

Kashmir Peak EW (result: unplaced) -1.00
Lac Fontana EW (unplaced) -1.00

At Fisher's Cross WIN (1st BFSP 2.42) +1.35 *available at 2.80+ most of today

African Gold EW (2nd BFSP 5.70/2.01) +0.00

Silviniaco Conti Win (fell) -1.00
Long Run EW (3rd BFSP 4.89/1.65) -0.20 *available at 5.90+ most of today


SUMMARY 1 winner from 6 selections on the day (16% strike rate) and 2 returning each-way dividends.  A risk of 6 points would return a loss of -1.85

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Like Tuesday, yesterday started with a perfect read on the race, The New One winning and the each play following in second.  In one race, the loss on day one recovered and from a financial point of view, Cheltenham started over again.

Leading into Cheltenham, I had watched the Twiston-Davies runners closely.  As a jockey, Sam has a style when taking on certain distances.  He has the measures of the horses early on and is able to judge their 'tanks'.  He also comes across as a jockey who researches his competition.  His abilities to partner a horse came together on The New One.

His approach also landed each way returns with Master Of The Sea working his way into fourth after a crowded race, my win bet Pendra not wanting to gear up and going completely flat when McCoy positioned him to join the front of the pack, the leaders kicking smoke up.

So it felt good to make money off of a yard I had targeted.  Yes, a gamble since they have been ravaged by a virus that set back their season but sometimes it takes faith in a jockey and trainer simply doing their best.

Boston Bob was the difference between profit and loss yesterday.  The fall turned a (potential) 6 point win into a 1 point loss.  But as I watched the race, three strides before the fence, I had my concerns on the run in simply because two other horses were feeding off each other and would land behind the leader then adrenaline between horses and jockey's would turn to a battle to the line.  But, it's all about jumping at Cheltenham and others simply did it better.

And, again, results aside, there have been some wonderful racing to watch and win or lose over the four days, you have to feel we are getting our money's worth.



Best of luck with your day.


THE JEWSON

During the week, I watched some 'bankers' rather than bet on them.  Today, though, all arrows point at Dynaste.  The horse and jockey, Tom Scudamore, seem to have the measure of those in the field that challenge for the win.  There is a confidence and consistently in the jumping and David Pipe has said that this will be an 'easier race' after gauging the conditions leading up to the race. 

My confidence on this is to place 2 points on the horse. 

Though all the talk centers around Captain Conan and Aupcharlie, I have doubts on both runners and targeted a horse that I feel is an value EW play.  Nicky Henderson's other runner is Molotof with AP McCoy on board.  With experience and decent times over distances greater than today, if there are any parts of the track that throw in some give, Molotof will push through it.

My feeling is that McCoy's lack of wins has kept the price out and I see this as excellent value.

Dynaste Win (2 points)
Molotof EW (1 point)

Prices at posting: Dynaste 2.56 / Molotof 32.00/7.00

_______________________________________

THE RYANAIR CHASE

First Lieutenant has Davy Russel on board who has been getting the best out of his horses this week and this stamps confidence that the horse will live up to the gutsy drive this horse has.  Again, for me the ability to run longer distances will come into play to have the edge through the undulations.  Cue Card is a worthy opponent but when First Lieutenant finished 3rd at Newbury, I rated the run as 5 star in defeat.

Like the fave, I'm banking on Menorah to prove that Newbury form is strong at Cheltenham.  A decent time in defeat in February, I'm hoping the successful partnership with Richard Johnson will be the catalyst to challenge for the front.

First Lieutenant Win
Menorah EW

_______________________________________

WORLD HURDLE (3:20)

The two in the front of the betting ran within a breath of each other, their last runs before today.  But leading up to the festival I have reviewed the winners and once you hit that 20 furlong distance at Cheltenham, experience and form at longer distances must weigh in.

For that, Reve De Sivola becomes the value bet on the race.  Coupled with a second behind Big Bucks at Newbury, I think that come the finish, if the favourite is still in the mix, though many say that there will be a reversal from the last time they met, I see this as value and Richard Johnson will work hard to retain a 100% record with the horse.

I was not alone this week with the note that if the ground improved just slightly, Smad Place will find a bit extra over the 3 miles.  The horse has experience against the principles and though the French horse is surrounded by Irish each-way opportunities, if the race unfolds with the pace picking up sooner than expected, Smad Place is more likely to be a leader than a follower.


Reve De Sivola Win
Smad Place EW

_______________________________________

CHALLENGE CUP

After two weeks of going through notes, there are times you can't over think a bet.  Before the run of Irish winners, I had circled this horse.  Donald McCain led into the week 'concerned' about the going and today will be suitable for Super Duty.  With the exception of a fall, the trainer has placed the horse well and it has managed 1st's and 2nd's including a win at Cheltenham in December.  Normally piloted by Jason Maguire, the race is for Amateur jockey's.  Those who follow the blog know I normally put a line through this type of race but media reports earlier in the year had the trainer saying he had booked Derek O'Connor long in advance so you can be certain that the jockey with two wins at the track has been involved in the prep. 

Super Duty EW



SUMMARY
Dynaste Win (result: 2nd) -2.00 (festival banker)
Molotof EW (8th) -1.00

First Lieutenant Win (2nd) -1.00
Menorah EW (pulled up) -1.00

Reve De Sivola Win (4th) -1.00
Smad Place EW (3rd BFSP 14.50/3.75) +0.85

Super Duty EW (2nd BFSP 8.56/2.62) +0.25

SUMMARY A day without a winner though two each ways returned dividends.  A total of 8 units recommended returned a loss of -4.90.  For performance calculations, a risk of 7 points would have returned a LSP loss of -3.90

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4 RACES FOR DAY TWO AT CHELTENHAM

Cheltenham started on a winning note for me with Champagne Fever winning the delayed start.  The horse went off just shy of 5/1 on betfair after support brought it in from the 9/1 that was on offer until the plunge.

After that, no real success and as each of my selection faded from contention, I found myself quickly changing modes to cheer on some of fantastic racing.  It was great seeing horses in such fantastic condition.  As well, as I poured another cup of coffee late last night to review the times, all the horses in the finishes showed incredible improvement.

As a 'value hunter', you sometimes feel like you aren't part of the big wins.  But this game is all about opinions and, as I said yesterday, I'll stick to my tactics and will hopefully come out of the week with a bigger bank than I started with and, either way, a little wiser with more knowledge on what it takes to find a winner at Cheltenham.

Best of luck on your day.


THE NEPTUNE (2:05)

I can’t put anyone off backing the fave.  The small field will suit Ponte Alexandre making it a worthy favourite but recent form has been over heavy and the fields not as competitive as today.

The New One has done nothing wrong this season.  The Twiston-Davies horse raced over the new course in January, a neck behind At Fisher’s Cross and ahead of Coneygree who had form at the track, as well.

On my own ratings, The New One’s run in October was one of the fastest of the month and with today’s ground being better than yesterday, I have confidence that the Sam Twiston-Davies will have the measure of the pace, ride the undulations as he did yesterday in the last and pressure the fave sooner than expected.

I gave Rule The World and Davy Russells last run at Naas 5 stars.  The jockey ‘stalked’ the leaders perfectly that day and took the race in stages before winning by 13 lengths over Minsk.  A winner from yesterday’s racing, Champagne Fever, was also in the race and tried to make all but faded to third.

The New One Win
Rule The World EW

At posting: The New One 6.20, Rule The World 8.00/2.32

__________________________

THE RSA CHASE

The weather has made this into a test of stamina and Dynaste out, the opinions have changed from who will challenge to who will win.

Post-analysis of Boston Bob constantly says that the horse takes ages to get to speed.  Under Ruby Walsh, yes, I can see that.  But last time out, Paul Townend positioned the Mullins horse perfectly.  He is on board again today and with better ground than recent races in Ireland, and will be able to pace the horse without having to push it through the early part of the race and will press the stayer, Unioniste.

The David Pipe horse Goulanes likes winning by a neck.  Infact, the last three wins read head/neck/neck.  The horse shows that it will go to battle in the finish, recently beating Super Duty.  As disappointed with The Druid’s Nephew’s run yesterday, Tom Scudamore got extra out of His 80/1 runner His Excellency. He has won three times on the horse and will hopefully excel on today’s going.

Boston Bob Win
Goulanes EW

At posting: Boston Bob 6.0, Goulanes 10.5/3.20

__________________________

THE CORAL CUP (4:00) 

***BETFAIR PAYING 5 PLACES ON SPORTSBOOK (not on exchange)***

Twenty eight runners makes a value EW race for punters. 

A P McCoy has stepped up and will ride Pendra and I rank it as his best chance on day two.  The horse raced consistently at Plumpton and on my own ratings, improved when running at Sandown in January.  The ability to take the longer distance is a question mark but hoping A P can pace the horse in the early going.

Only at Cheltenham can you finde a horse with a string of four wins since December available at 20/1.  Master Of The Sea runs for the Twiston-Davies yard and has experience over longer distances and though carrying more weight than its recent run at Newbury, the horse has shown steady improvement on my ratings and is a value EW play.

Pendra Win
Master Of The Sea EW

At posting: Pendra 9.60, Master Of The Sea 21.00/4.80




__________________________



THE FRED WINTER (4:40)

***BETFAIR PAYING 5 PLACES ON SPORTSBOOK (not on exchange)***


24 runners over 16 furlongs ensures a battle to be in the front early on and then hold the race.

What impressed me with Bordoni was that despite mistakes at Warwick in December, when Denis O'Regan gave it reminders it remained in the race and finished 2nd.  This can come in handy when the pace band bumping start to take its toll on the field.  The less testing conditions will suit the horse and is, in my opinion, John Ferguson's best chance at Cheltenham glory.

I expected Counsel to be around 10/1 and horse opened up at 16's and has been creeping in.  Donald McCain has, again, mentioned his concerns with the ground but looking at yesterday's times, improved ground could set this up as a challenge for the frame and possibly a surprise win for both the yard and jockey Jason Maguire.

Bordoni WIN
Counsel EW

At posting: Bordoni 9.60, Counsel 15.5/4.30


SUMMARY
The New One (result 1st BFSP 4.52) +3.40  *in from 6.20
Rule The World EW (2nd BFSP 6.41/1.95) -0.05 *in from 8.00/1.95 

Boston Bob Win (fell when leading at last) -1.00 
Goulanes EW (6th) -1.00

Pendra Win (17th) -1.00 
Master Of The Sea EW (4th BFSP 13.30/4.00) +1.45 *in from 20.00/5.00

Bordoni WIN (unplaced) -1.00
Counsel EW (unplaced) -1.00

Once again, the first race of the day does great finding the winner and the each-way came in second (12% strike-rate).  Master Of The Sea also placed.  A risk of 8 points would have returned a LSP loss of -0.20



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5 RACES COVERED FOR CHELTENHAM DAY 1


Over the past six months, races were captured on the hard disc and notes were taken all with the intention of taking a shot at Cheltenham.

In the past, I sometimes found myself overwhelmed by the form, the trainers, the headlines.  This year, yes, a few articles read but I focused hard on forming my own opinions on the races and hoped that come the day the prices would reflect better value than my expectations.

My usual approach is to discuss on the blog my views on sifting through the races on the day and making selections, more dealing with the post-mortem the next day to offer insight.

Every person on the forum has their views on today's racing so mine is just one more of many.

I'll be staying true to my personal tactics so, essentially, will live and die by my own sword.  The only difference is rather than keeping notes on the track for future races, I'll find myself reviewing the winners and losers and quickly incorporate it into the coming days and hopefully find a few nice priced winners that way.

Good luck to everyone through the week.  May all the horses and jockey's come home safe and every punter have their moment.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS FOR DAY ONE AT CHELTENHAM

SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE

All eyes are on the Nicky Henderson’s My Tent Or Yours to start the festival off on a good note for favourite backers.

But looking at the horse’s runs, I feel the competition hasn’t put the horse under any pressure and I wonder how it will react if hit with one, two or more challenges over the 2 miles.

I wanted to consider Dodging Bullets at the price but none of this season’s races made my notes as overly impressive. 

For me, the two strongest horses in the field have Irish form: Jezki and Champagne Fever. 

Jezki improved with each of its four wins back to October while Champagne Fever made all in February at Leopardstown and earned the victory under pressure from Bright New Dawn who further supported the result by winning at Thurles nineteen days later. 

I also think that Leopardstown might not have the undulations of Cheltenham but it is a much stiffer track and more testing than those travelled by My Tent Or Yours.  Robbie Power’s task will be to maximize the portions of the track where Jeski can work the flat to its advantage.  I also think that when it comes down to the run-in, the mid-race pressure could take its toll on the Nicky Henderson horse.

Jezki WIN
Champagne Fever EW

_________________________

THE ARKLE

Like everyone, I ended up cutting this race down to the two principles; Simonsig and Overturn.

Both are unbeaten over fences but I feel the head-to-head will better suit Overturn.

The Donald McCain horse is a consistent jumper that allows Jason Maguire to find the right moments to notch up the pace.  And when the moment comes, the horse will put its head down and go for a gallop that sustains then extends itself very quickly.

The challenge for Barry Geraghty will be to try to get Simonsig to settle early while at the same time seeing Jason Maguire having the option to have Overturn try to make all. 

I also feel that in cross-form analysis, like my views on the previous race, Simonsig hasn’t had the same level of competition as Overturn so this makes the prospect of odds on for the fave not a value play.

Pundits have been focused on the fact that Donald McCain seems to be avoiding ground with too much give in it.  Perhaps this will be the undoing but my view is the make-up of the race will suit the horse more than the grey making the second fave the value bet.

Overturn win

_________________________

THE JLT

24 runners all with recent form (though Our Mick unseated Jason Maguire after some bumping) so a fair amount of notes covering all the field.

I slept on this one until this morning and decided that I would put more weight on my own ratings.

Merry King is, in my opinion, one of Jonjo O’Neill’s best runners of the week.  The horse has produced steady times and has been running better than its mark of 139.  The last run at Haydock, jockey Richie McLernon turned the race up and fought hard for the win in testing ground.  The time produced to the horse was equivalent to runs by others today that have run recently on better ground.

I might be alone on this one but The Package may only have 2 wins from 14 attempts in chasers, the win at Wincanton was over a greater distance today and I think the horse showed character in defeat behind Bobs Worth,  Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant off a much higher mark than today.  That day, I felt Tom Scudamore possibly tried to hard and forced the horse through the race.  Timmy Murphy returns to pilot the horse for the 20th time.

The Merry King Win
The Package EW

_________________________

CHAMPION HURDLE

Zarkander comes into the race recently beating Rock On Ruby and Grandouet in December and Khyber Kim last time out at Wincanton.

The horse has run over more testing ground than today and while the previews on the race say this is all about Hurricane Flyer, for me, preparation reads that Paul Nichols might have his first winner of the week with Daryl Jacob on board.

This will be a highly tactical race with the possibility of Rock On Ruby trying to get to the front early with first time blinkers and upping the pace.  A few weeks ago, the media focused on others in the race who are now available at each way prices, Zarkander surviving the scrutiny. 

For me, question marks on how stiff the competition has been for Hurricane Flyer.  For me, it comes down to value and Zarkander is the play in the Champion Hurdle

Zarkandar Win

________________________


REWARDS4RAACING NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE


This was the last race I looked at last night and despite making decisive decisions on the others, I found myself trying to hard to find the angle or edge that would bring one stand-out horse to the forefront, perhaps overwhelmed by all the recent form, all with notes.

Waking to the news about the inspection made me wait a bit longer before finding the play to end day one with.

The Druid’s Nephew fell into ‘one pace’ in the end at Kempton over 3 miles but the next race at Wincanton, the horse proved itself beating two horses with competitive form; Grandioso and Tony Star.

Carlito Brigante is Gordon’s Elliot best chance today.  The horse won a novices’ chase at Cheltenham in October off a mark of 147.  Davy Russell has four wins and three seconds from fifteen rides on Carlito Brigante so I’m confident that he’ll be able to deal with the pace that is more likely to be dictated by others.

The ground by ends day will have had some racing and think that will benefit the two selections.

The Druid’s Nephew Win
Carlito Brigante EW


SUMMARY

Jezki WIN (result: 3rd) -1.00
Champagne Fever EW (1st BFSP 5.89/2.18) +2.90 (in from 9/1+ when posting)

Overturn WIN (4th) -1.00

The Merry King Win (13th) -1.00
The Package EW (pulled up) -1.00

Zarkandar Win (4th) -1.00


The Druid’s Nephew Win (6th) -1.00
Carlito Brigante EW (hampered and pulled up)-1.00


SUMMARY The day started well with Champagne Fever winning after being bet in from 9/1+ (12% strike-rate).  A risk of 8 points would have returned a LSP loss of -4.10 (-50% ROI)






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Last week, Thursday was the only day of five that paid returns. 

Over the week, of the 23 that didn't win their races, 7 came in second (30%). 

I'm not trying to be a 'spin-master' on the stats to try to make a bad week look better.  But I always look at my losing bets and take on board the reasons but also the result to keep things in perspective.

Those following the blog have seen when I've added up the fractions of seconds between a winning and losing day.  As well, I also am a strong believe that horses aren't machines and have their 'off days' and will put this in the notebook.

I also questioned my selection of races and wondered if I had found quality form or 'race card filler'.  And have I entered into a transition of goings and, like a football manager who at 30 minutes realizes his game plan isn't working, it is the time to adjust accordingly rather than 'push through it'.

That said, there is nothing worse than when you feel like you don't have a pulse on any given day, let alone a week. But I also know that it's important to stick to what I know and where I am comfortable.  Otherwise I might find myself going down a path that leads away from the steady road of profit I have been on.



UPDATE The selections for today are up.  Good luck with the day ahead

WEAK FAVES FOR 11-Mar

none

Early Price:


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 11-Mar

Plumpton
3:40 Petit Ecuyer (Result 2nd) -1.00
4:40 Beware Chalk Pit EW (--) -1.00

Taunton
3:20 Seventh Sky (1st BFSP 4.00) +2.85
4:20 Scales (1st BFSP 4.30) +3.15

SUMMARY 2 for 2 at Taunton makes for a 50% strike rate on the day.  A risk of 4 points would have returned a LSP profit of +4.00  (100% ROI)



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I found myself 'searching' for value yesterday and finding too many question marks with the horses running yesterday afternoon.  That's not to seay that I didn't have confidence in the selections.  And looking at some of the results, my question marks that led to lines being put through races made sense.

And though only one of the selections won out of eight put up yesterday, a sense of deja vu of that line between profit and loss on the day with two horses coming second and an each-way bet (Rise To Glory) shooting from the stalls but being swallowed up at the finish all be it in front of the top horses in the betting.

I also feel like the changing ground conditions means some adjustment in my reads.  This is something that one goes through when at it five days a week.  You get a rhythm and a 'familiarity' to which tracks and distances best show a horses potential on the day.  Now with the change of conditions, it is time to take that extra pass and make sure the read suits the task at hand.

Also, anyone reading Thursday's blog saw my mention of Robert Tart as being a jockey on my 'hot list'.  His reliability was there again last night at Wolverhampton winning well on my only winning selection yesterday, King George River, but also going 2 for 2 when he won on the 4F horse in a 4 runner race, Minimee.

UPDATE The pint in the fridge much more inviting than Wolverhampton so no selections tonight.  Have a good weekend

WEAK FAVES FOR 8-March

none

Early Price:


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 8-MARCH

Ayr
2:40 Delightfully EW (result: 5th) -1.00
3:10 Howizee EW (4th) -1.00
4:55 See What Happens (Fell) -1.00

Leicester
4:45 Kellystown Lad EW (6th) -1.00

Sandown
2:50 Olympian Boy (4th) -1.00

SUMMARY 0 for 5 today on a week where only one day paid returns.  A risk of 5 points returned a loss of -5.00



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Yesterday, Robert Tart proved to me why he was a jockey in my notebook.

He rode my each-way selection, Sannibel, in the 3:00 at Lingfield.  The horse started a bit slower than expected from the outside draw.  Undeterred, he didn't rush the horse but instead kept pace while letting the rest of the field sort itself.  Just before the pace as upped, he found his line and went from the outside middle to the rail in a smoothed, angled run.  But the rail got closed and he then adjusted after a handful of strides and sent the horse through a space the width of a shed door.

The horse came second, a length ahead of the fave but behind Chevise who won its first race since April, 2011.

The jockey won on Carazam at 8/1 90 minutes later.

Another strong jockey that will give you a run for your money.

UPDATE All selections are up.  Good luck with your evening

WEAK FAVES FOR 7-March

none

Early Price:


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 7-MARCH

Carlisle
2:40 Balding Banker EW (result: 10th of 11) -1.00
3:15 Witness In Court (4th) -1.00
4:20 Lucky Landing EW (2nd BFSP 9.60/2.81) +0.40

Wincanton
3:00 If In Doubt (6th of 8) -1.00
4:05 The Stout Italian (2nd) -1.00

Wolverhampton
6:40 Rise To Glory EW (4th) -1.00
7:40 Big Sylv (2nd) -1.00
8:10 King George River (1st BFSP 2.38) +1.35 *in from 15/8 earlier

SUMMARY only 1 winner from 8 selections (12% strike rate) and 1 each-way paying dividends.  A risk of 8 points would have returned a loss of -5.25 (-65% ROI)


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Tuesday brought two decent calls; De La Bech won after coming in from 2/1 in the betting.  The race took a fair amount of cross-form but felt confident going with the selection even with A P McCoy's mount, Abnaki, the morning co-fave and eventual disappointment for anyone backing it.

Victor Hewgo ran a great race returning the EW dividend.  A well paced ride by James Reveley was beaten by Indian Castle making its hurdles debut and made all.

A small, manageable loss on the day but still waiting for some momentum to kick in for March.

UPDATE I will be passing on Kempton and will return Thursday.  Good luck with your evening

WEAK FAVES FOR 6-March

none

Early Price:


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 6-MARCH

Lingfield
2:30 Dorothy's Dancing (result: 1st BFSP 3.68) +2.60
3:00 Sannibel EW (2nd BFSP 8.60/2.93) +0.40
3:30 Red Refraction (1st BFSP 1.93) +0.90
4:30 Honey Of A Kitten (3rd) -1.00

SUMMARY 2 winners out of 4 selections (50% strike rate) and one each way paying dividends.  A risk of 4 points would return a LSP profit of +2.90 (72%)



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Monday felt like, well, a Monday. 

The day started well with Gentleman Anshan giving an excellent run into second to be beaten by the fave, Nobel Legend. 

After that, I felt like I didn't have a feel for the day.  It happens.  Especially when you're at it five days a week. 

Monday was a day where I took little from the day.  Gentleman Anshan will remain in the notebook along with Polar Venture who ran well in defeat.  But other than that, a day to leave in the bottom drawer

UPDATE All races are up.  Best of luck with your day

WEAK FAVES FOR 5-March

none

Early Price:


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 5-MARCH

Exeter
3:00 Presenting Arms (result: 16th of 18) -1.00
4:00 De La Bech (1st BFSP 2.48) +1.45

Newcastle
2:20 Wake Your Dreams (4th) -1.00
3:20 Dawn Ride EW (unplaced) -1.00
4:20 Victor Hewgo EW (2nd BFSP 6.37/2.03) +0.00

SUMMARY 1 winner from 5 selections (20% Strike-rate) and 1 each-way placing. A risk of 5 points would return a loss of -1.55 (-31% ROI)




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On the weekend, I posted my stats for February which returned +28.00 and an ROI of 24%.

I'm still looking over everything to pin-point the positive and negatives and where I could improve when selecting my races.  The fact that 50% of my selections during the last two weeks paid dividends stood out and showed that the work that you put in can pay off. 

I also counted 5 selections over the month where I made glaring mistakes of judgement. 

Right now, I'm focused on preparing for the flat season ahead.


UPDATE: Selections are up for the day.  Good luck with your week ahead



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 4-MARCH


Kempton
3:50 Bowstar EW (result: 8th) -1.00
5:00 Kakatosi EW (6th) -1.00
5:30 Polar Venture (2nd) -1.00
6:30 Irene Kennet EW (3rd BFSP 4.97/1.99) -0.00

Southwell
2:30 Gentleman Anshan EW (2nd BFSP 7.06/2.19) +0.10
3:40 One For Luck EW (9th) -1.00

WEAK FAVES FOR 4-March



Early Price:


SUMMARY 6 selections produces no winners with two each-way selections returning dividends.  A risk of 6 points would have returned a loss of -3.90


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