SHAPESHIFTER

I found myself 'searching' for value yesterday and finding too many question marks with the horses running yesterday afternoon. That's not to seay that I didn't have confidence in the selections. And looking at some of the results, my question marks that led to lines being put through races made sense. And though only one of the selections won out of eight put up yesterday, a sense of deja vu of that line between profit and loss on the day with two horses coming second and an each-way bet (Rise To Glory) shooting from the stalls but being swallowed up at the finish all be it in front of the top horses in the betting. I also feel like the changing ground conditions means some adjustment in my reads. This is something that one goes through when at it five days a week. You get a ...

January had been 'easy' with no heavy streak of losses, several each-ways returning dividend until winners came in. The first two weeks of February were the opposite. At one point I went 14 selections where no money was coming back to me. It came down to a combination of bad race selection and then even worse selections. Last week, win or lose, at least I felt like I had a pulse on the markets. So on Friday when the races at Wolverhampton were coming up, I felt good enough about the afternoon to take on the evening card. But knowing the week had gone well and a fraction of the bank was poised for 'take away', I decided to take the each way angle and, in a sense, play it safe while challenging myself to find a good priced winner. Jumbo Prada did run well, finishing in...

If you take yesterday's three unsuccessful win bets and combine their distances behind the winners, you get a total of three and a half lengths. Three and a half lengths translates to roughly [i]seven tenths of a second[/i]. An example of where the day returns a loss but the read was not that far off of having a 'green' afternoon. [b]UPDATE[/b] [b]I will be passing on Kempton tonight to return rested for Thursday. Have a good evening [/b] [b] WEAK FAVES FOR 30-January[/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Leicester 2:00 Franklin Roosevelt [i](result: refused at 1st)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 3:00 Topaze Collonges [b]EW[/b] [i](unplaced)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 3:30 Ballyoliver [b]EW[/b] [i](unplaced)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:30...

What a difference a year can make. Last October, racing was all over the newspapers because of the 'whip rules'. Infact, Richard Hughes refused to race at one point until it was readdressed. Flash forward to 2012 and the back page has pictures and positive headlines. As Richard Hughes hit number 3 on Embankment, I kept looking at my selection of Duke Of Clarence. As he battled Links Drive Lady to the front, I wondered if my selection would be 'number seven' on the day. A race later, it was relegated to possibly being number 6. Then, I laughed, imagining he's landed 5 and I backed one of two that don't hit the line first. But he did land it after a head to head battle with Sheila's Buddy, my chose being the tightest winning margin of the day but paying the same. I already...

Based on comments and messages I receive, the focus remains that this is simply about laying a horse. First, yes, it is the premise since I am saying that, based on the horses performance on previous races and the competition it faced, it is selected since I see factors that say it is taking on a stronger field and/or conditions that won't suit. Secondly, I put up my figures based on laying the horse. This allows perspective. But I still feel the better returns can be found if you ever are able to put a line through the early fave and work through the form from there. The risk can often be less and the return potential be more, even if dutching two or three in the field. The key is value over the long term. [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 9-OCTOBER[/b] Selections based on the quality...

Just the selections today after a weekend of travel. Best of luck with your week. I've added in 'Early Prices' that is the price that was available between 11 and 12. This is nothing more than a guide since whether a horse steams or drifts, I will post the Betfair SP with the results. [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 24-SEPTEMBER[/b] Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races Strike rates: Hamilton: 2 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%) Kempton: 6 meetings: 11 for 14 (79%) Leicester: 3 meetings: 7 for 7 (100%) Hamilton 2:10 Jack Luey [i](Result: 1st BFSP 4.30)[/i] 4:40 Windygoul Lad [i](2nd in photo)[/i] [i]Early prices: Jack Luey 4.60 / 4.10[/i] Kempton 4:20 Intransigen [i](1st BFSP 3.73)[/i] 5:20 Cruiser [i](5th of 8)[/i] 5:50 Great Shot[i] (8th of...

[b][i]Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM[/i][/b] Tuesday, 11 September Newton Abbot was frustrating to watch. Even when Adelar finished 3rd, I had no confidence in the call leading up to the finish when the jockey's shifted and swung their positions for the final hurdle, an action that perhaps was the reason Adelar didn't win. After that, Jewellery made all, a tactic I didn't expect. And Changing Of The Guard once again won in the final strides. Bath was collectively within less than a length of being much worse while my reserved approach to Newcastle proved the most successful call of the day. I can see that come the fall when the jumps and chases come more into play more, I'll have to look closely at my approach. The idea is to find horses...

After a break, I was back at the screens for Monday landing 4 for 5 calls correctly. Wolverhampton maintained a 100% strike rate over seven meetings. The other positive signal that I can read the track is that of the other five races I passed on, three won. Ffos Las was one for two and despite having early success with my approach, I'm finding that form and performance translates differently at the track. The high point of the day was the 6:00 and Chambles. I avoid reading too much media before making my selections and after posting for the day, I found that the Alan Mccabe horse had been selected by several of the newspapers, blogs and on twitter. I haven't had a chance to see the replay yet, the first day of the week finished with the Chambles eight lengths behind the eventual...