SHAPESHIFTER

After a break, I was back at the screens for Monday landing 4 for 5 calls correctly.

Wolverhampton maintained a 100% strike rate over seven meetings.  The other positive signal that I can read the track is that of the other five races I passed on, three won. 

Ffos Las was one for two and despite having early success with my approach, I'm finding that form and performance translates differently at the track.

The high point of the day was the 6:00 and Chambles.  I avoid reading too much media before making my selections and after posting for the day, I found that the Alan Mccabe horse had been selected by several of the newspapers, blogs and on twitter.  I haven't had a chance to see the replay yet, the first day of the week finished with the Chambles eight lengths behind the eventual winner.


Though this has evolved into a 'list to lay', it wasn't the intention from the outset.  It was more to identify early priced fave's that I thought would not run well.  Usually when laying, you need to find the two or three to support the call which is something I don't bring into the equation.  And though the strike rate justifies the risk to lay, my list was intended more to put a 'line through the horse' then look for the EW value play in the race which would be less risky and possibly improve the ROI (return on investment).

I've also started listing horses that I feel are solid backs.  Essentially, it means when I am looking at their performance and the quality of the field, I can see that their form is strong and that 'no boxes were ticked' to indicate that they shouldn't be favorites for the race.  For the each-way, I've either found one that I think will run better than the 'weak fave' or I have found a race where several horses at longer odds have a chance and it is worth doing a read to find a value EW play.

But I would be careful about simply following any of the backs or ew's since I haven't any long-term stats to support if it is profitable.  And, more importantly, a matter of judging if the calls are value.  For example, yesterday, I mentioned Al's Memory as an each way play.  At 11 AM, the horse was 7.4.  By 1, it was 6.2 and at the off, co-fave at 3/1.  So despite finishing 2nd to the 6F, I wouldn't have considered it a value EW play at 4.36.

WEAK FAVES FOR 4-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Goodwood: 2 meetings: 5 for 5 (100%)
Leicester: 1 meeting: 2 for 2 (100%)
Musselburgh: 3 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)

GOODWOOD
2:55 Cushion (Result: 3rd)
6:20 Swift Blade (1st: BFSP 5.05)

LEICESTER
2:00 Jamesbos Girl (2nd / hd)
4:15 Ukrainian (10th of 10)
4:50 Crown Counsel (3rd / 1L)

MUSSELBURGH
3:15 Centrifugal (1st BFSP 2.39)
3:50 Ingleby Symphony (4th of 9)
4:25 Tiger Webb (4th of 10)
5:00 Sweet Fairnando (7th of 10)


Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:

Goodwood
3:30 Normal Equilibrium.  Should be able to handle the distance with weight (Result: 3rd)
4:05 Steeler: Has seen solid competition on every race but with race now down to five runners, the value is a bit skinny (Result: won at BFSP 1.56)

Leicester
2:30 First Class EW. Steady performer with Silvestre De Sousa on board for the first time and ground to suit.  10/1 at 12:30 (Result: started well but quickly became one paced and outperformed finishing 15 lengths behind the eventual winner)

***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: 'RATE' AND/OR 'FOLLOW' THE BLOG***

Your comments and views are always welcomed