SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday shows how this world can swing around. After ten days of sub-par results, I landed six for six over the three tracks and ending the day with a success streak of ten selections in a row. I stayed close to the approach I have used which is to look at the competition that the horses have had and gauge from there. Speed ratings was the 'final tick' that rated Colourist behind Starlight Angel and Secretori in a four runner race. I selected Tiger Webb for a second time this month. Both times, the horse went off at 5/2 and both times was unplaced, yesterday finishing 8th of 12. I had doubts on thecornishcowboy winning at 5/4 in the morning, but I passed having successfully selected it earlier this year. The horse went onto win by a neck over Titus Bolt. And despite betting...

After a break, I was back at the screens for Monday landing 4 for 5 calls correctly. Wolverhampton maintained a 100% strike rate over seven meetings. The other positive signal that I can read the track is that of the other five races I passed on, three won. Ffos Las was one for two and despite having early success with my approach, I'm finding that form and performance translates differently at the track. The high point of the day was the 6:00 and Chambles. I avoid reading too much media before making my selections and after posting for the day, I found that the Alan Mccabe horse had been selected by several of the newspapers, blogs and on twitter. I haven't had a chance to see the replay yet, the first day of the week finished with the Chambles eight lengths behind the eventual...

I played Goodwood again after a day away. With any meeting, if selections aren't becoming obvious, it's best not to 'force' selections and move on. Landing 4 for 4 at the other meetings on Wednesday proved that my time was properly used. I also find the better the fields, the deeper you have to go in the form. And, as I mentioned a few days ago, I find need to focus even harder on the horses performances rather than the names of the trainers and jockey's until later in the process. Even though my approach is to find faves that have not run against what I consider 'weak fields', I am well aware that top trainers will work hard on preparing and placing a horse in the right race while certain jockeys will get more out of a horse than those that rode previously. So once I've found...

Yesterday an example of where a 'weak fave' drifts heavily. Kalk Bay moved from 4/1 out to 8/1 on Betfair. At that point, it becomes a question of where a horse crosses that line to becoming a value EW play. I don't have time today, but there have been a few drifters during the month (I can't be the only person thinking there is value elsewhere in the race). The last few weeks, I kept track of the price at noon versus the off. When compared to the BFSP, the odds at the off were shorter. I'll touch on this later this week. Views are always welcomed via comments. [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 2-AUGUST[/b] Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races GOODWOOD 2:45 Ahern 3:45 Estimate NOTTINGHAM 3:05 Moorhouse Girl 4:45 Dynamic Duo [i] RESULT...