SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday shows how this world can swing around.  After ten days of sub-par results, I landed six for six over the three tracks and ending the day with a success streak of ten selections in a row.

I stayed close to the approach I have used which is to look at the competition that the horses have had and gauge from there.  Speed ratings was the 'final tick' that rated Colourist behind Starlight Angel and Secretori in a four runner race.

I selected Tiger Webb for a second time this month.  Both times, the horse went off at 5/2 and both times was unplaced, yesterday finishing 8th of 12.

I had doubts on thecornishcowboy winning at 5/4 in the morning, but I passed having successfully selected it earlier this year.  The horse went onto win by a neck over Titus Bolt.

And despite betting spiking out and in several times before the start on Winning Note, the selection finished well outside the frame.

In general, as the afternoon evolved, changing conditions made it difficult for punters.  For Rime Avec Gentil, I had already looked at performance based on worsening ground, a decision that only supported the call when the rains came at Newton Abbot.

Though for backing, each way was the way to go at all the tracks, several 'early faves' such as Altharoos, Gull Rock, Authentication and Minella Stars went on to win their races making Tuesday's 100% an even more positive read.

As of end of day Tuesday, the streak of successful calls is at ten.

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I have posted the 'early prices' that are the readings I took between 11 and 12 when my long list becomes short.  But to keep performance in perspective, I will continue to present the Betfair SP with results. 

How you use and/or calculate the returns of any or all of the selections would be up to you.


WEAK FAVES FOR 26-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Goodwood: 4 meetings: 6 for 7 (86%)
Kempton: 7 meetings: 13 for 17 (76%)
Perth: 2 meetings: 2 for 3 (67%)


Goodwood
3:10 Positively (result: 8th of 8)
4:15 Cardinal Walter (3rd)

Early Prices: Positively 5.0 / Cardinal Walter 3.50

Kempton
6:20 Henry Clay (7th of 8)
8:20 Enthusiastic (1st BFSP 3.88)
9:20 Leelu (2nd)

Early Prices: Henry Clay 4.30 / Enthusiastic 5.20 / Leelu 3.70 

Perth
3:20 Kai Broon (2nd by 17 Lengths)
4:30 Nodforms Violet (1st BFSP: 4.50)

Early Prices: Kai Broon 3.15 / Nodforms Violet 4.80

SUMMARY 3 for 4 on the afternoon card with Nodforms Violet ending a streak that saw thirteen in a row.  Evening at Kempton produced 2 for 3 bringing the week to 15 for 20 (75%)



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Goodwood
3:40 Ektihaam (2nd by a neck) -1.00

Kempton
8:50 Strategic Action EW (unplaced) -1.00

Perth
2:10 Mulligans Man (1st: BFSP 1.55) +.55
5:05 Flying Doctor EW (7th) -1.00



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