SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday, Robert Tart proved to me why he was a jockey in my notebook. He rode my each-way selection, Sannibel, in the 3:00 at Lingfield. The horse started a bit slower than expected from the outside draw. Undeterred, he didn't rush the horse but instead kept pace while letting the rest of the field sort itself. Just before the pace as upped, he found his line and went from the outside middle to the rail in a smoothed, angled run. But the rail got closed and he then adjusted after a handful of strides and sent the horse through a space the width of a shed door. The horse came second, a length ahead of the fave but behind Chevise who won its first race since April, 2011. The jockey won on Carazam at 8/1 90 minutes later. Another strong jockey that will give you a run for...

Tuesday brought two decent calls; De La Bech won after coming in from 2/1 in the betting. The race took a fair amount of cross-form but felt confident going with the selection even with A P McCoy's mount, Abnaki, the morning co-fave and eventual disappointment for anyone backing it. Victor Hewgo ran a great race returning the EW dividend. A well paced ride by James Reveley was beaten by Indian Castle making its hurdles debut and made all. A small, manageable loss on the day but still waiting for some momentum to kick in for March. [b]UPDATE[/b] [b]I will be passing on Kempton and will return Thursday. Good luck with your evening[/b] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 6-March [/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 6-MARCH[/b] Lingfield 2:30...

On the weekend, I posted my stats for February which returned +28.00 and an ROI of 24%. I'm still looking over everything to pin-point the positive and negatives and where I could improve when selecting my races. The fact that 50% of my selections during the last two weeks paid dividends stood out and showed that the work that you put in can pay off. I also counted 5 selections over the month where I made glaring mistakes of judgement. Right now, I'm focused on preparing for the flat season ahead. [b]UPDATE:[/b] [b][i]Selections are up for the day. Good luck with your week ahead[/i] [/b] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 4-MARCH[/b] Kempton 3:50 Bowstar [b]EW[/b] [i](result: 8th)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 5:00 Kakatosi [b]EW[/b] [i](6th)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 5:30...

Wednesday finished with three winners and two each ways returning dividends out of eight selections. The ROI on the day came to 100%. That brings this week to 7 winners from 19 selections, a 37% strike rate and around a 55% ROI. I'd also like to say thanks for the messages and comments. It is appreciated. [b]UPDATE:[/b] [b][i]All selections are up. Good luck with your evening[/i] [/b] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 28-February [/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Ludlow 3:30 Ballyoliver [b]EW[/b] [i](result: 1st BFSP 8.12/2.48)[/i] [b]+4.10[/b] Kempton 6:30 Scent Of Roses [i](2nd)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 7:00 Avonmore Star [i](4th)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 8:00 Shearian [b]EW[/b] [i](1st BFSP 16.46/4.13)[/i] [b]+8.80[/b] Southwell 4:20...

Yesterday, 3 winners emerged from 6 selections. I did take on one horse that was odds on then drifted to evens at the off. Broxbourne was going for his 4th win which was achieved but was challenged right to the line. I took on the call knowing all the factors but looked at the circuit at Lingfield as a straight-up challenge for the horse. The other two at Lingfield were a disappointment, Fonterutoli and Mack's Truck both lacking the mustard it takes to win races. I had three over obstacles. The day started with Be My Deputy drifting before the off and winning. Iron Butterfly's result read's 4th but the 30/1 (BFSP) EW play finished just over a second behind the eventual winner so one for the notebooks over a similar distance. The Fox's Decree won but cashing in the winning...

February has turned around after a couple of days in the first two weeks put dents into the gains. Last week, 22 selections yielded 6 winners (27% strike rate) while 6 each way plays returned dividends. Overall, a LSP gain of 12.60 and a 57% ROI. [b]UPDATE: All selections are up. Good luck with your day and the week ahead[/b] WEAK FAVES FOR 25-February[/b] [i]none [/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Kempton 2:50 Bridge The Gap [i](result: 1st BFSP 3.91)[/i] [b]+2.75[/b] 3:50 Alhabaan [i](3rd)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:20 Stir Trader [b]EW[/b] [i](3rd BFSP 8.00/1.97)[/i] [b]-0.05[/b] Wolverhampton 4:00 Cheers for Thea [b]EW[/b] [i](3rd/2 places paid)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 5:30 Tatting [b]EW[/b] [i](unplaced)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] [b]SUMMARY[/b]...

The week so far: 11 selections 3 winners (27% strike rate) 2 each ways returning dividends A risk of 11 points would have returned a LSP profit of [b]+3.90[/b] (35% ROI) [b]UPDATE: Passing on 8:00 and the 'hands and heels'. Have a good evening.[/b] WEAK FAVES FOR 20-February[/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Kempton 7:30 Clear Praise [b]EW[/b] [i](result: unplaced)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] Lingfield 2:30 Catalina's Diamond [b]EW[/b] [i](1st BFSP 9.60/2.89)[/i] [b]+4.60[/b] 3:35 Lager Time [i](3rd)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:40 Devout [i](1st BFSP 6.20)[/i] [b]+5.00[/b] [b]SUMMARY[/b] [i]Two winners from four selections (50% SR). A risk of 4 points would return a LSP profit of[/i] [b]+7.60[/b] (190% ROI) ...

I sat on Wednesday watching Lingfield unfold and like the previous day, the selections felt like they were 'lifeless'. As each race finished, I did a post-mortem, looking at the winners and the times, and kept looking at the results and my selections and everything just clouded over. Yes, Safwaan was at the bottom of the ratings for the field but I felt the value was there. But it ran outclassed and as though horse and jockey were going through the motions. Musselburgh comes down to what I thought were value selections, something that has kept my account under control despite the strike-rate being down. Instead of watching the last two at Lingfield, I put on the hard disc and chilled. The streak of poor results came down to me and nothing else. So time to reboot and 'reconnect'...

For a second week, Tuesday hit me in the gut. As I watched the racing, the selections showed absolutely no life. I took on the goings at hand and made a read that had no feeling or pulse. I left the day on the desk and will dust it off in a week or so. Luckily, they are few and far between but still can weigh heavy on your decision making if you dwell on it. [b]UPDATE: All selections are up. Good luck if you are playing later races. WEAK FAVES FOR 13-February[/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Kempton 5:30 Spirit Of Gondree [b]EW[/b] [i](result 3rd BFSP 9.40/3.60)[/i] [b]+0.20[/b] *dead heat for 3rd / partial returns 6:30 Indian Affair [b]EW[/b] [i](1st BFSP 7.20/2.13)[/i] [b]+1.90[/b] *dead heat / in from 11/1 when...