Wednesday finished with three winners and two each ways returning dividends out of eight selections. The ROI on the day came to 100%. That brings this week to 7 winners from 19 selections, a 37% strike rate and around a 55% ROI.
I'd also like to say thanks for the messages and comments. It is appreciated.
UPDATE: All selections are up. Good luck with your evening
WEAK FAVES FOR 28-February
none
Early Price:
STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK
Ludlow
3:30 Ballyoliver EW (result: 1st BFSP 8.12/2.48) +4.10
Kempton
6:30 Scent Of Roses (2nd) -1.00
7:00 Avonmore Star (4th) -1.00
8:00 Shearian EW (1st BFSP 16.46/4.13) +8.80
Southwell
4:20 Ascendant (4th) -1.00
4:50 Marshall Art EW (10th of 13) -1.00
5:20 Berlusca EW (7th of 8) -1.00
Taunton
2:10 No To Trident EW (3rd BFSP 5.70/1.89) -0.10
5:10 Lady Bridget EW (5th) -1.00
SUMMARY 9 selections over 4 meetings produces 2 winners (22% strike rate) and one EW in the frame. A risk of 9 points returns a LSP profit of +6.80 (75% ROI)
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SHAPESHIFTER'S WORLD
Comments: 6
IQMJ
Yes, I use 5/1 as the mark for EW.
Right now, with my strike-rate on horses 5/1 or better, I am happy with the profit it brings. I look at it the same as perhaps betting "DRAW NO BET" meaning the place 'nulls' the bet. So eliminating "placed" horses, if I maintain a strike-rate on the balance of WINS/LOSSES, it should pay an overall return.
I personally don't just bet the place market. The reason is my approach is to find horses that I think are going to win and not sure how I would do finding (value) place selections.
One of my mentors would only bet 'win', even up to 30/1 betting roughly the same as faves. But it takes a 'mind frame' that I don't believe I have achieved.
Perhaps I'll stretch the 'systematic' 5/1 down the line. Yesterday, for example, E Street Boy, was a possibility but a few factors in the race made me go each-way.
I passed on the 7:30 since I felt I had a better read on the 7:00 and 8:00 race and focused my investments tonight there.
Yes, I use 5/1 as the mark for EW.
Right now, with my strike-rate on horses 5/1 or better, I am happy with the profit it brings. I look at it the same as perhaps betting "DRAW NO BET" meaning the place 'nulls' the bet. So eliminating "placed" horses, if I maintain a strike-rate on the balance of WINS/LOSSES, it should pay an overall return.
I personally don't just bet the place market. The reason is my approach is to find horses that I think are going to win and not sure how I would do finding (value) place selections.
One of my mentors would only bet 'win', even up to 30/1 betting roughly the same as faves. But it takes a 'mind frame' that I don't believe I have achieved.
Perhaps I'll stretch the 'systematic' 5/1 down the line. Yesterday, for example, E Street Boy, was a possibility but a few factors in the race made me go each-way.
I passed on the 7:30 since I felt I had a better read on the 7:00 and 8:00 race and focused my investments tonight there.
race panned out perfectly. A great end to the day.
Well done in the lucky last I cheered it in for you :)
Keep hitting the big ones and your mindset will soon change. Get on em, they hit all the time. As long as you're staking sensibly, you don't get affected by the streaks. Suddenly backing 6-4s with no margin for error - you can say 'no thanks'.
1pt on each returned 12pt profit for you today and 133% ROI.
Keep hitting the big ones and your mindset will soon change. Get on em, they hit all the time. As long as you're staking sensibly, you don't get affected by the streaks. Suddenly backing 6-4s with no margin for error - you can say 'no thanks'.
1pt on each returned 12pt profit for you today and 133% ROI.
The script couldn't have been written better...discussing EW vs on-the-nose / I say I look for horses that win and, well, it wins.
Yes, today 130% BUT it is one day.
Ask me in a year after a few hundred EW's.
Yes, today 130% BUT it is one day.
Ask me in a year after a few hundred EW's.
I still believe you are better off ditching all the under 5BSP and the EW part. You are having double on a 2-1 shot than a 9-1 chance which doesn't make sense and kills the ROI. It seems to me, anything over 5-1 and you are automatically making it an each way bet.
Personally I use the place market if I don't think the horse will win, but the odds available are better than it's chance of running 2nd or 3rd (has to be over 3BSP place). I guess you want action and turnover but it pays to wait for the right price IMO.
Thecornishcockney is running again tonight, one of my favourite horses this winter. It owes us nothing after winning last time, but the price today is nowhere near as good, so I'm happy to watch it win at 7-4. Interesting to see if you put him up later.