SHAPESHIFTER

Monday felt like, well, a Monday. The day started well with Gentleman Anshan giving an excellent run into second to be beaten by the fave, Nobel Legend. After that, I felt like I didn't have a feel for the day. It happens. Especially when you're at it five days a week. Monday was a day where I took little from the day. Gentleman Anshan will remain in the notebook along with Polar Venture who ran well in defeat. But other than that, a day to leave in the bottom drawer [b]UPDATE[/b] [b]All races are up. Best of luck with your day[/b] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 5-March [/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 5-MARCH[/b] Exeter 3:00 Presenting Arms [i](result: 16th of 18)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:00 De La Bech [i](1st BFSP 2.48)[/i]...

On the weekend, I posted my stats for February which returned +28.00 and an ROI of 24%. I'm still looking over everything to pin-point the positive and negatives and where I could improve when selecting my races. The fact that 50% of my selections during the last two weeks paid dividends stood out and showed that the work that you put in can pay off. I also counted 5 selections over the month where I made glaring mistakes of judgement. Right now, I'm focused on preparing for the flat season ahead. [b]UPDATE:[/b] [b][i]Selections are up for the day. Good luck with your week ahead[/i] [/b] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 4-MARCH[/b] Kempton 3:50 Bowstar [b]EW[/b] [i](result: 8th)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 5:00 Kakatosi [b]EW[/b] [i](6th)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 5:30...

Wednesday finished with three winners and two each ways returning dividends out of eight selections. The ROI on the day came to 100%. That brings this week to 7 winners from 19 selections, a 37% strike rate and around a 55% ROI. I'd also like to say thanks for the messages and comments. It is appreciated. [b]UPDATE:[/b] [b][i]All selections are up. Good luck with your evening[/i] [/b] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 28-February [/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Ludlow 3:30 Ballyoliver [b]EW[/b] [i](result: 1st BFSP 8.12/2.48)[/i] [b]+4.10[/b] Kempton 6:30 Scent Of Roses [i](2nd)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 7:00 Avonmore Star [i](4th)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 8:00 Shearian [b]EW[/b] [i](1st BFSP 16.46/4.13)[/i] [b]+8.80[/b] Southwell 4:20...

The week started out well with the returns on the day being just shy of 100% ROI. Contributing to yesterday was putting lines through races the night before rather than in the morning. When I sat down with the coffee, I had already struck all of Southwell and half the races off of Carlisle and Wolverhampton so there was no need to even glance at those races. So far, Tuesday's in February have hit the betting wallet hard. Hopefully the stat that I am green so far in 2013 with Taunton returning 2 winners from 6 and 2 of the others returning each way dividends will help counter that. [b] UPDATES: Wetherby and Taunton are up. I am passing on Southwell[/b] [b] WEAK FAVES FOR 19-February[/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Taunton 2:30...

Yesterday, I hi-lighted one of my three selections on the day: [i] Looking back over the week, punters were stung several times by odds on horses under performing. Today, one of my selections, Full Swing, is now odds on around 4/5 with Roc De Prince non-runner. But even when the David O´Meara was in the race, I had confidence in the selection so will be going with it. [/i] The play had 'checked all the boxes' and I went with it feeling the only danger was out of the race. Sure enough, with a small field and punters feeling that a fave was "due to win", the price moved in from 4/5 at 1PM to 1/2 at the off. And Suffice won the race and turned over the odds on fave but did so with, according to my ratings, a performance slower than previous races. This reminds us that...

I might have mentioned this before, but when a day unfolds they way it did yesterday, I feel like a football manager who feels that he has gotten the game plan wrong. Yesterday, I felt like a premier league team visiting a lower league team, the simplest of game plans dissolving. By the end of the day, I had no clear indication on where the overall read went wrong on the day. Last evening, the conclusion is that Southwell had the same effect on my approach of cross-form as heavy can have. I dubbed one selection as the worst for 2013 so far; Lady Lyrath in the 1:40. I went into it aware that it was an amateur race. Based on previous runs, I felt the horse would take lead to instructions and help Evanna McCutcheon through the race. It was also available at 7/1 and the market...

The first day of selections for February offered a small return of 10% after investing in 7 races. On Thursday, I had enough confidence in William Twiston-Davies to score on Valdaw. Yesterday, two of his three rides were caught by my 'radar'. Both at decent prices, I tried to narrow it down to one but, in the end, both were solid contenders. He ran Azrael from the front only to be caught over taken before the line losing by a length. With Wordiness, his abilities in the home straights to find the lane and power was the decisive factor in the race and the horse won well. Overall, some decent money made the past week off of an up and coming jockey. The day was tough viewing with three highly competitive horses suffering fatal injuries. "Part of racing" is what the final line...

Yesterday was the second day running of around 70% ROI on the day. Today, selections from both the all weather and jumps. With Southwell kicking off early, I am posting the early selections then the balance later. [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 14-November[/b] Strike rates Southwell: 7 meetings: 9 for 11 (82%) Kempton: 11 meetings: 17 for 23 (74%) Southwell 12:50 Pearl Noir [i](2nd)[/i] Early prices: Pearl Noir 3.80 [b]SUMMARY[/b] [i]1 for 1 on the day. Pearl Noir remained favourite going off at 2/1, in touch till the final furlong. Lays remain at 100% for the week.[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Bangor 1:00 Pampelonne (3rd) [b]-1.00[/b] KEMPTON 4:25 Renegotiate [i](2nd by 3.75L)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 5:25 Clear Praise [b]EW[/b] [i](5th)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 6:55...

[i]I will be away for the start of the week and will return either Thursday 1-November or Friday. Best of luck with your week[/i] ---------- Wednesday offered up a variety of backs that ran well and paid dividends. Current Event (2:10) was based on value against ratings. All the horses had ratings that could improve but against the price, I felt was a value EW play. The horse felt otherwise and was never in contention. Hoarding (3:05) After eliminating the rest of the field for various reasons, the bet came down to head to head against So Beloved on my own ratings, the 2F proving a consistent performer over a variety of conditions. No No Bingo (4:30) was an evens shot but when looking at the race, I could not find any horse that I thought would threaten. Two of ...