SHAPESHIFTER

I might have mentioned this before, but when a day unfolds they way it did yesterday, I feel like a football manager who feels that he has gotten the game plan wrong.

Yesterday, I felt like a premier league team visiting a lower league team, the simplest of game plans dissolving.

By the end of the day, I had no clear indication on where the overall read went wrong on the day.  Last evening, the conclusion is that Southwell had the same effect on my approach of cross-form as heavy can have.

I dubbed one selection as the worst for 2013 so far; Lady Lyrath in the 1:40.

I went into it aware that it was an amateur race.  Based on previous runs, I felt the horse would take lead to instructions and help Evanna McCutcheon through the race.  It was also available at 7/1 and the market backed it into 5/1 and went off co-fave so I wasn't alone with this view on the race. 

Unfortunately, the start went wrong and the jockey's inexperience didn't kick the gears up and decided to ride with the pace positioned behind the bulk of the field. 

Lady Lyrath was responding to every command but they were few and far between.  And when it looked like there was a chance of making a challenge and at least salvage an EW dividend, the horse followed commands with discipline....right into the rear of a drifter, the horse loosing all rhythm and fading.

I put a line through the race.  I also decided that if I'm going to get involved with amateur jockey's it will have to be with smaller fields and shorter distances.  I haven't bet on many and will look hard at every other race on the day before 'venturing to the plexi-glass' to put money on one in the future.

And, in general, I have to take days like that for what they are.  A loss rather than discouraging.  I do have a "you have to be in it to win it" attitude and if I dwelled on days like yesterday, I wouldn't be able to focus on the goal of the moment which is to find value plays that will lead to a positive gain on the day at hand.


UPDATE I am passing on Kempton.  Good luck with your evening.


WEAK FAVES FOR 6-February

None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Carlisle
2:55 Lucematic (2nd) -1.00
3:30 Ebony River EW (unplaced) -1.00
4:35 On Broadway (unplaced) -1.00

Ludlow
2:10 Storm Survivor EW (2nd BFSP 12.00/3.20) +0.60
3:15 Prima Porta EW (1st BFSP 11.61/2.91) +6.00
4:55 Phone Home EW (4th) -1.00

Southwell
2:00 Hittinthe Skids EW (4th) -1.00
4:45 Entitlement (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY The read on the Ludlow races proved successful with a winner and a 2nd at the line returning the gains for the day.  A risk of 8 points would have returned a profit of +0.60 (7% ROI)


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