SHAPESHIFTER

[b]SELECTIONS FOR GOLD CUP DAY[/b] I found myself caught between that world again as someone that invests in a horses performance and one who is enthralled with the quality of the horses and the performances by the jockeys. With the exception of Super Duty who lived up to expectations, be it 2nd at the line, as each of my selections have faded from contention I found myself cheering on the finish. I made a couple of mistakes on my day. First, I got caught up in the Reve De Sivola -v- Oscar Whiskey aspect of the World Hurdle. Part of my approach is to sit down and compare horses that I feel are the principles (and not necessary at the top of the betting) then once that is done, I then compare that once selection to the entire field. What this leads to is I've created a ...

Like Tuesday, yesterday started with a perfect read on the race, The New One winning and the each play following in second. In one race, the loss on day one recovered and from a financial point of view, Cheltenham started over again. Leading into Cheltenham, I had watched the Twiston-Davies runners closely. As a jockey, Sam has a style when taking on certain distances. He has the measures of the horses early on and is able to judge their 'tanks'. He also comes across as a jockey who researches his competition. His abilities to partner a horse came together on The New One. His approach also landed each way returns with Master Of The Sea working his way into fourth after a crowded race, my win bet Pendra not wanting to gear up and going completely flat when McCoy positioned him...

[b]4 RACES FOR DAY TWO AT CHELTENHAM[/b] Cheltenham started on a winning note for me with Champagne Fever winning the delayed start. The horse went off just shy of 5/1 on betfair after support brought it in from the 9/1 that was on offer until the plunge. After that, no real success and as each of my selection faded from contention, I found myself quickly changing modes to cheer on some of fantastic racing. It was great seeing horses in such fantastic condition. As well, as I poured another cup of coffee late last night to review the times, all the horses in the finishes showed incredible improvement. As a 'value hunter', you sometimes feel like you aren't part of the big wins. But this game is all about opinions and, as I said yesterday, I'll stick to my tactics and will hopefully...

[b]5 RACES COVERED FOR CHELTENHAM DAY 1 [/b] Over the past six months, races were captured on the hard disc and notes were taken all with the intention of taking a shot at Cheltenham. In the past, I sometimes found myself overwhelmed by the form, the trainers, the headlines. This year, yes, a few articles read but I focused hard on forming my own opinions on the races and hoped that come the day the prices would reflect better value than my expectations. My usual approach is to discuss on the blog my views on sifting through the races on the day and making selections, more dealing with the post-mortem the next day to offer insight. Every person on the forum has their views on today's racing so mine is just one more of many. I'll be staying true to my personal tactics so,...

Last week, Thursday was the only day of five that paid returns. Over the week, of the 23 that didn't win their races, 7 came in second (30%). I'm not trying to be a 'spin-master' on the stats to try to make a bad week look better. But I always look at my losing bets and take on board the reasons but also the result to keep things in perspective. Those following the blog have seen when I've added up the fractions of seconds between a winning and losing day. As well, I also am a strong believe that horses aren't machines and have their 'off days' and will put this in the notebook. I also questioned my selection of races and wondered if I had found quality form or 'race card filler'. And have I entered into a transition of goings and, like a football manager who at 30 minutes...

I found myself 'searching' for value yesterday and finding too many question marks with the horses running yesterday afternoon. That's not to seay that I didn't have confidence in the selections. And looking at some of the results, my question marks that led to lines being put through races made sense. And though only one of the selections won out of eight put up yesterday, a sense of deja vu of that line between profit and loss on the day with two horses coming second and an each-way bet (Rise To Glory) shooting from the stalls but being swallowed up at the finish all be it in front of the top horses in the betting. I also feel like the changing ground conditions means some adjustment in my reads. This is something that one goes through when at it five days a week. You get a ...

Yesterday, Robert Tart proved to me why he was a jockey in my notebook. He rode my each-way selection, Sannibel, in the 3:00 at Lingfield. The horse started a bit slower than expected from the outside draw. Undeterred, he didn't rush the horse but instead kept pace while letting the rest of the field sort itself. Just before the pace as upped, he found his line and went from the outside middle to the rail in a smoothed, angled run. But the rail got closed and he then adjusted after a handful of strides and sent the horse through a space the width of a shed door. The horse came second, a length ahead of the fave but behind Chevise who won its first race since April, 2011. The jockey won on Carazam at 8/1 90 minutes later. Another strong jockey that will give you a run for...

Tuesday brought two decent calls; De La Bech won after coming in from 2/1 in the betting. The race took a fair amount of cross-form but felt confident going with the selection even with A P McCoy's mount, Abnaki, the morning co-fave and eventual disappointment for anyone backing it. Victor Hewgo ran a great race returning the EW dividend. A well paced ride by James Reveley was beaten by Indian Castle making its hurdles debut and made all. A small, manageable loss on the day but still waiting for some momentum to kick in for March. [b]UPDATE[/b] [b]I will be passing on Kempton and will return Thursday. Good luck with your evening[/b] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 6-March [/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 6-MARCH[/b] Lingfield 2:30...

Monday felt like, well, a Monday. The day started well with Gentleman Anshan giving an excellent run into second to be beaten by the fave, Nobel Legend. After that, I felt like I didn't have a feel for the day. It happens. Especially when you're at it five days a week. Monday was a day where I took little from the day. Gentleman Anshan will remain in the notebook along with Polar Venture who ran well in defeat. But other than that, a day to leave in the bottom drawer [b]UPDATE[/b] [b]All races are up. Best of luck with your day[/b] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 5-March [/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 5-MARCH[/b] Exeter 3:00 Presenting Arms [i](result: 16th of 18)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:00 De La Bech [i](1st BFSP 2.48)[/i]...