Last week, Thursday was the only day of five that paid returns.
Over the week, of the 23 that didn't win their races, 7 came in second (30%).
I'm not trying to be a 'spin-master' on the stats to try to make a bad week look better. But I always look at my losing bets and take on board the reasons but also the result to keep things in perspective.
Those following the blog have seen when I've added up the fractions of seconds between a winning and losing day. As well, I also am a strong believe that horses aren't machines and have their 'off days' and will put this in the notebook.
I also questioned my selection of races and wondered if I had found quality form or 'race card filler'. And have I entered into a transition of goings and, like a football manager who at 30 minutes realizes his game plan isn't working, it is the time to adjust accordingly rather than 'push through it'.
That said, there is nothing worse than when you feel like you don't have a pulse on any given day, let alone a week. But I also know that it's important to stick to what I know and where I am comfortable. Otherwise I might find myself going down a path that leads away from the steady road of profit I have been on.
UPDATE The selections for today are up. Good luck with the day ahead
WEAK FAVES FOR 11-Mar
none
Early Price:
STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 11-Mar
Plumpton
3:40 Petit Ecuyer (Result 2nd) -1.00
4:40 Beware Chalk Pit EW (--) -1.00
Taunton
3:20 Seventh Sky (1st BFSP 4.00) +2.85
4:20 Scales (1st BFSP 4.30) +3.15
SUMMARY 2 for 2 at Taunton makes for a 50% strike rate on the day. A risk of 4 points would have returned a LSP profit of +4.00 (100% ROI)
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Comments: 3
Expunter....A few angles on math that can be taken with the selection. Someone wrote me an email that when I put up a selection and he is opposing, he pulls back a bit if I'm taking on the fave! So lots of angles.
The EW's seem to be a 'steady earner' on the place market but my 'headspace' right now with them is, as mentioned a couple of weeks ago, focusing on finding winners taking the places the same as, say "draw=no bet". If I think 'place' then I'll probably knowingly 'compromise' on the criteria.
I'm a believer you have to look at your results and, yes, find how close you are to profit. Last week I skipped on even looking at Southwell since looking at it since the flood, I am somewhere around 0-9. That's a pretty hefty chunk.
I'm looking forward to Cheltenham with the goal of incorporating a few strategies to find some values and, well, perhaps a few 20/80 plays for Expunter!