SHAPESHIFTER

I will be away for the start of the week and will return either Thursday 1-November or Friday.

Best of luck with your week

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Wednesday offered up a variety of backs that ran well and paid dividends.

Current Event (2:10) was based on value against ratings.  All the horses had ratings that could improve but against the price, I felt was a value EW play.  The horse felt otherwise and was never in contention.

Hoarding (3:05) After eliminating the rest of the field for various reasons, the bet came down to head to head against So Beloved on my own ratings, the 2F proving a consistent performer over a variety of conditions.

No No Bingo (4:30) was an evens shot but when looking at the race, I could not find any horse that I thought would threaten. 

Two of the EW's showed where looking at the context of a performance rather than the result as presented can find value;

River D'Or (3:25) was around 9/2 before drifting into EW price. When looking at the last race, it was 3rd by 25 lengths.  But against the stop watch and conditions that day, the run produced an excellent time.  Yesterday, a solid second behind Venetian Lad.  I haven't done the ratings yet but yesterday is probably a true barometer of River D'Or.

Hippy Hippy Shake (4:45) was the find of the day.  After a summer that produced a win and two 2nd's, the horse finished 9th on softer ground earlier this month.  But the race had a winning time that was one of the best of the day against the conditions. More importantly,  Hippy Hippy Shake's '9th' was only around 1.5 seconds off behind the winner.

It's a matter of putting the results into context rather than what the basics of the form present.

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Yesterday, only one 'weak fave' on offer.  And a mistake on my part.

I put too much emphasis on the last two runs by Shrewd.  A closer look at the July win and the field that day indicated that the effort produced that day was truer to form.

Simply a bad selection.

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Today, with Princess Shapeshifter home from school, an excuse to just watch the jumps and focus my limited time on the all weather races today.

I'm still finding the lack of form a challenge to make research on the jumps efficient.

WEAK FAVES FOR 25-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Southwell: 5 meetings: 6 for 7 (86%)
Wolverhampton: 13 meetings: 23 for 27 (85%)

Southwell
3:35 Havin A Good Time (1st: BFSP 2.78)

Early prices: Havin A Good Time 3.25

SUMMARY Another day of only one selection that won by 5 lengths

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Southwell
2:30 Roman Order (3rd) -1.00
4:05 Infinitum  (1st BFSP 2.27) +1.25
4:40 Honest Deal EW (4th/unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY Only one horse of three paying dividends.  Roman Order faded from contention after a steady pace.  Honest Deal, with the race but one paced towards the finish.  LSP of 3 points would have returned a loss of -0.75.


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