SHAPESHIFTER

I found myself 'searching' for value yesterday and finding too many question marks with the horses running yesterday afternoon. That's not to seay that I didn't have confidence in the selections. And looking at some of the results, my question marks that led to lines being put through races made sense. And though only one of the selections won out of eight put up yesterday, a sense of deja vu of that line between profit and loss on the day with two horses coming second and an each-way bet (Rise To Glory) shooting from the stalls but being swallowed up at the finish all be it in front of the top horses in the betting. I also feel like the changing ground conditions means some adjustment in my reads. This is something that one goes through when at it five days a week. You get a ...

Yesterday, Robert Tart proved to me why he was a jockey in my notebook. He rode my each-way selection, Sannibel, in the 3:00 at Lingfield. The horse started a bit slower than expected from the outside draw. Undeterred, he didn't rush the horse but instead kept pace while letting the rest of the field sort itself. Just before the pace as upped, he found his line and went from the outside middle to the rail in a smoothed, angled run. But the rail got closed and he then adjusted after a handful of strides and sent the horse through a space the width of a shed door. The horse came second, a length ahead of the fave but behind Chevise who won its first race since April, 2011. The jockey won on Carazam at 8/1 90 minutes later. Another strong jockey that will give you a run for...

The very last bet of February finished with Shearian winning at 15/1. The other plus on the day was narrowing Ludlow down to just one race and landing the Venetia Williams runner, Ballyoliver at 71/1. Combined the two each-way bets made up for the 0 for 3 at Southwell, a sign that I still don't have a grip on the track and perhaps questions about the surface and its recovery since flooding at the close of last year. I started reading through February last night reviewing the pluses and minuses, summarizing my notes and preparing for the close of jumps and the start of the new flat season. For 'weak faves', I seem to be wary on restarting them. Perhaps part of the mindset and will update you on this in the coming week. Thanks, again, for your messages in my in-box this morning....

February has turned around after a couple of days in the first two weeks put dents into the gains. Last week, 22 selections yielded 6 winners (27% strike rate) while 6 each way plays returned dividends. Overall, a LSP gain of 12.60 and a 57% ROI. [b]UPDATE: All selections are up. Good luck with your day and the week ahead[/b] WEAK FAVES FOR 25-February[/b] [i]none [/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Kempton 2:50 Bridge The Gap [i](result: 1st BFSP 3.91)[/i] [b]+2.75[/b] 3:50 Alhabaan [i](3rd)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:20 Stir Trader [b]EW[/b] [i](3rd BFSP 8.00/1.97)[/i] [b]-0.05[/b] Wolverhampton 4:00 Cheers for Thea [b]EW[/b] [i](3rd/2 places paid)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 5:30 Tatting [b]EW[/b] [i](unplaced)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] [b]SUMMARY[/b]...

The week up to end of day Thursday: 14 selections 5 winners (36% strike rate) 2 each ways returning dividends A risk of 14 points would have returned a LSP profit of [b]+11.50[/b] (82% ROI) [b]UPDATE: All selections are up. Good luck with your evening and have a good weekend[/b] WEAK FAVES FOR 22-February[/b] [i]none [/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Lingfield 2:30 Flavius Victor [i](result: 6th of 7)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 3:05 Diamond Vine [b]EW[/b] [i](2nd BFSP 6.20/2.64)[/i] [b]+0.30[/b] 3:40 Silverware [i](5th of 6)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:40 Sail Home [i](1st BFSP 4.20)[/i] [b]+3.00[/b] Wolverhampton 7:30 Jumbo Prado [b]EW[/b] [i](3rd BFSP 7.32/2.52)[/i] [b]+0.25[/b] 8:00 Lean On Pete [b]EW[/b] [i](3rd BFSP 8.80/3.19)[/i]...

Both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, I went without a winning selections. But everything turned around Wednesday evening and the week finished with 9 winners from 31 selections for a strike rate of 31%. Coupled with 4 each bets returning dividends, the week finished with a gain of roughly +2.00 (6% ROI). With the holidays and some time with the family, I'm not sure if I will be posting every day this week. [b]UPDATE: All selections are up. Good luck with your day and week ahead WEAK FAVES FOR 18-February[/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Carlisle 3:15 Yesyoucan [i](result 1st: BFSP 4.09)[/i] [b]+3.00[/b] 3:40 My Boy Paddy [b]EW[/b] [i](UR)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:10 Billy Cuckoo [b]EW[/b] [i](1st: BFSP 8.71/3.00)[/i]...

[i]"You're never alone with a schizophrenic" - Ian Hunter[/i] Looking over the past few days, you would think it was too different people. But, no, it was one person who went through what all punters do which is a period where they start to think "I'll never get another winner." I used to play golf 5 days a week, even if just nine holes in the evening. I loved the game. Besides a right shoulder that now dips in slightly, two major things I learnt from the game: - visualization - leave the bad shots behind you. For visualization, it meant standing behind the ball, picturing it going around the tree, landing in front of the green and rolling up. I would stand until I could see it going between the branches and rolling safely to a halt before leaving the green. It made...

Last week, four of the five days turned a small profit but those days simply recouped the loss from Monday at Southwell when I went 0 for 5. The 'stand out' stat for me on the week was 25% of the selections came second which, again, shows the fine-line between 'breaking-even' and having solid returns. Three of the days, I had horses nicked at the line with Storm Survivor, Ballypatrick and Illustrious Forest all giving me a 'run for the money'. Looking back over the week, punters were stung several times by odds on horses under performing. Today, one of my selections, Full Swing, is now odds on around 4/5 with Roc De Prince non-runner. But even when the David O´Meara was in the race, I had confidence in the selection so will be going with it. [b]UPDATE: All selections...

Like Storm Survivor on Wednesday, Ballypatrick gave a run for the money at Huntingdon yesterday but was caught at the line. But, like the day before, the following race at the same track produced a good price winner in the form of Art Professor who had been supported all day. I was one for two on shorter priced horses yesterday. Mr Mole won as expected for Paul Nicholls and AP McCoy while Close Touch didn't like the step up in distance who was well beaten by African Gold. Like the previous day, not a lot of winners but the value kept the day at more or less break even. [b]WEAK FAVES & VALUE PLAYS IS PUBLISHED MONDAY TO FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE FIRST RACE OF THE DAY. WEAK FAVES FOR 8-February[/b] none [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Bangor 1:30...