Last week, four of the five days turned a small profit but those days simply recouped the loss from Monday at Southwell when I went 0 for 5.
The 'stand out' stat for me on the week was 25% of the selections came second which, again, shows the fine-line between 'breaking-even' and having solid returns.
Three of the days, I had horses nicked at the line with Storm Survivor, Ballypatrick and Illustrious Forest all giving me a 'run for the money'.
Looking back over the week, punters were stung several times by odds on horses under performing. Today, one of my selections, Full Swing, is now odds on around 4/5 with Roc De Prince non-runner. But even when the David O´Meara was in the race, I had confidence in the selection so will be going with it.
UPDATE: All selections are up for the day. Good luck with your Monday and the week ahead
WEAK FAVES FOR 11-February
none
Early Price:
STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK
WOLVERHAMPTON
3:30 Full Swing (result: 2nd) -1.00 *went off at 1.48 / in from 4/5 at noon
4:30 Patriotic (1st BFSP 4.38) +3.15 *2F until Noble Jack refused to enter stalls
5:30 Fleetwoodsands EW **NON-RUNNER**
6:00 Piccolo Express EW (unplaced) -1.00
SUMMARY one winner from three returns a profit. A risk of 3 points would have returned a LSP profit of +1.15 (37% ROI)
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SHAPESHIFTER'S WORLD
Comments: 2
Following the blog, I rarely back +- 7/4 for several reasons but mainly it takes me as much time to research a race involving an odds on fave as it does, say, the 4:30 where Noble Jack is 3/1.
I also feel that when a horse is odds on, the form/jockey/trainer have put it there for everyone to see.
I sincerely thought the horse was value earlier and the posting was sincere at that price. I didn't think that it would contract to 1/2 nor would I have posted.
But based on the way the market went with it, others thought it was a solid bet.
BTW: I ran today's race and the rating I have given Suffice (which i will adjust again once the full meeting has run) is 'lower' than going into today's race.