SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday, I hi-lighted one of my three selections on the day:


Looking back over the week, punters were stung several times by odds on horses under performing.  Today, one of my selections, Full Swing, is now odds on around 4/5 with Roc De Prince non-runner.  But even when the David O´Meara was in the race, I had confidence in the selection so will be going with it.

The play had 'checked all the boxes' and I went with it feeling the only danger was out of the race.

Sure enough, with a small field and punters feeling that a fave was "due to win", the price moved in from 4/5 at 1PM to 1/2 at the off.
And Suffice won the race and turned over the odds on fave but did so with, according to my ratings, a performance slower than previous races. 

This reminds us that horses are not machines and Full Swing underperformed and watching the race labored with the challenge from the moment Suffice set upon it.

Despite this, a small profit on the day when Patriotic won its race.

Only two of eight faves won at Wolverhampton yesterday - Dashwood and Patriotic who, until Nobel Jack refused to go into the stalls, was 2nd fave.




UPDATE: Additional play added for Southwell and all plays are up.  Good luck with your day.

WEAK FAVES FOR 12-February


None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

AYR
2:20 Milano Magic (pulled up) -1.00
3:25 Aibrean EW (fell) -1.00
4:00 Sergeant Pink EW (4th) -1.00
4:30 Rich Lord EW (5th) -1.00

LINGFIELD
2:30 Richo (2nd) -1.00
3:05 Ballinhassig (pulled up) -1.00

SOUTHWELL
4:50 Day Of Destiny (2nd) -1.00

SUMMARY a total misread on seven races resulting in a variety of results.  A risk of 7 points would have returned a LSP loss of -7.00 (-100% ROI)

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