SHAPESHIFTER

I found myself 'searching' for value yesterday and finding too many question marks with the horses running yesterday afternoon. That's not to seay that I didn't have confidence in the selections. And looking at some of the results, my question marks that led to lines being put through races made sense. And though only one of the selections won out of eight put up yesterday, a sense of deja vu of that line between profit and loss on the day with two horses coming second and an each-way bet (Rise To Glory) shooting from the stalls but being swallowed up at the finish all be it in front of the top horses in the betting. I also feel like the changing ground conditions means some adjustment in my reads. This is something that one goes through when at it five days a week. You get a ...

Yesterday, I hi-lighted one of my three selections on the day: [i] Looking back over the week, punters were stung several times by odds on horses under performing. Today, one of my selections, Full Swing, is now odds on around 4/5 with Roc De Prince non-runner. But even when the David O´Meara was in the race, I had confidence in the selection so will be going with it. [/i] The play had 'checked all the boxes' and I went with it feeling the only danger was out of the race. Sure enough, with a small field and punters feeling that a fave was "due to win", the price moved in from 4/5 at 1PM to 1/2 at the off. And Suffice won the race and turned over the odds on fave but did so with, according to my ratings, a performance slower than previous races. This reminds us that...

A day away from the track yesterday with too many distractions both Monday night and Tuesday morning to allow me a to take a clear look at the racing. Monday's weather left just one track with racing. Three plays at Wolverhampton returned a small profit when Maypole Joe ran better than expected. My each way call on Follow The Flag was weighted too heavily on its previous run which was one of its best to date. [b]UPDATES After a great afternoon, passing on Kempton this evening. Good luck with your selections[/b] -------------- [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 23-January[/b] none [i]Early Price: [/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] LINGFIELD 1:00 Paphos [i](result: 1st BFSP 2.62)[/i] [b]+1.60[/b] 2:00 Story Writer [i](2nd)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 2:30 Broxbourne...

Yesterday, I spent the afternoon preparing for the jumps. Unlike the flat, ratings and performance over jumps will take a bit more assessment. Last year, I had a basic ratings for jumps that worked well. What I am finding challenging is the goings and conditions which are making it difficult to update my 'standards' and assessments of each track. So some sleepless nights ahead as I stand in front of my white board doodling and adjusting my parameters. Hopefully I won't go down the road of John Nash in 'A Beautiful Mind'. ------- Everything I do is built on momentum so when faced with slogging through jump form, it can numb down your mind. The key I found is rather than 'force' a read is to switch gears. That's what I did yesterday and while weighing out the faves,...

[b]SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK OF 17 to 21 SEPTEMBER[/b] FOR THE WEEK: 23 for 36 selections (64%) SEPTEMBER TO DATE: 78 for 110 (71%) [b]SELECTIONS TO BACK[/b] 14 selections Return at LSP: 1.68 ROI 12% Followers hit 100 this week. Thank you. [i][b]Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM[/b][/i] Friday, 21-September [i]Just focusing on 'weak faves' today and giving the 'writer' the day off.[/i] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 21-SEPTEMBER[/b] Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races Strike rates: Ayr: 6 meetings: 13 for 16 (81%) Brighton: 8 meetings: 19 for 22 (86%) Lingfield: 8 meetings: 16 for 18 (89%) Newbury: 2 meetings: 1 for 3 (33%) Wolverhampton: 8 meetings: 21 for 23 (91%) Ayr 2:50 Majestic Moon[i] ...

I have a solid strike rate at Lingfield. Over six meetings, I am 14 for 16 (88%). But after one pass through the form form Monday's meeting, I had no selections, so moved onto Kempton and Ffos Las. When I returned to Lingfield, I did another pass without a solid selection. The third pass produced one horse; Watheeq. But it felt forced and passed on the race. Despite historically doing well at the course, it had no influence on the read. All the early odds fave's, regardless of their finishing positions, had been in races involving decent competition who had produced subsequent results. It was as obvious as when the opposite is apparent. Watheeq won his race by a length. Here's how Lingfield panned out. Of the seven early odd 'faves': 4 remained fave's at race...

Friday's racing produced a good example of a 'weak fave'. In the 3:45 at Southwell, Jockey Richard Johnson took Kack Handed to the front from the first hurdle offering up a steady pace to the field. Early on, the thought of "made all" crosses my mind but you simply have to remind myself that it is a 2 miler over hurdles and not a 7 furlong flat race. Just over half-way, Kack Handed was still leading over the hurdles while Jamie Moore and Charlie Poste were content following. It wasn't until around three furlongs out that they made a collective move to challenge the leader. As they book-cased Kack Handed, this is where the analysis becomes apparent. Before Friday, Richard Johnson has ridden the horse 16 times, winning four. But when the challenge came, he asked for a...

Returning after a decent week with 15 of 17 horses identified as 'weak faves' not hitting the line first. But when looks at the results of the reads, when you see that a third of the selections came in 2nd, one clearly sees the thin line that runs between success and failure when taking on the horses. Those six horses that came in second probably offer more insight than the two that won or the balance that were unplaced when working towards improving. WEAK FAVES based on the quality of their field in previous races: AYR 3:05 Cheeky Wee Red 5:45 Chapellerie SOUTHWELL 2:40 Bring Sweets 4:20 Monzino 4:55 Soopacal Best of luck on your week ahead. [i]RESULT: Until today, all 16 selections on Monday had been successful but Soopacal won and won well. So 4 out ...