SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday, I spent the afternoon preparing for the jumps.  Unlike the flat, ratings and performance over jumps will take a bit more assessment. 

Last year, I had a basic ratings for jumps that worked well.  What I am finding challenging is the goings and conditions which are making it difficult to update my 'standards' and assessments of each track.

So some sleepless nights ahead as I stand in front of my white board doodling and adjusting my parameters. 

Hopefully I won't go down the road of John Nash in 'A Beautiful Mind'.

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Everything I do is built on momentum so when faced with slogging through jump form, it can numb down your mind.

The key I found is rather than 'force' a read is to switch gears.  That's what I did yesterday and while weighing out the faves, I found value in the field, something I stress is the angle rather than laying.

When doing the read on Haymarket, I couldn't find fault with any outing and the 3 length win supported that.

On my third pass of Kempton, I stuck with Hardy Blue and went on to look for solid EW plays.

My 'radar' focused in on Steelriver whose only run at Thirsk over Good to Firm showed as 6th in the form book but this was by just over a length in a half behind the eventual winner.  As well, Steelriver went to 2.5 in-running that day.

It's important to note that based on my ratings, Steelriver would still have to improve to win but it was in line with Syrenka and Branson, the early 1-2 faves in the market.  So it comes down to value which, in the long term, will pay and the bet was on and eventually landed at 10/1.


Progress is based on keeping an open mind on approaches rather than staying rigid.  Taking our knowledge and adapting to find gains is one of the keys.

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I'll be assessing the reads right up to race time today so will be rolling out selections up to 2PM.



WEAK FAVES FOR 11-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Ayr: 8 meetings: 15 for 19 (79%)
Exeter: No meetings to date
Kempton: 9 meetings: 15 for 21 (71%)
Worcester: 3 meetings: 7 for 7 (100%)

Ayr
3:40 Rothesay Chancer (result: 9th of 10) drifted to 7/1

Early Price: Rothesay Chancer 5.20

Exeter
Passing on calls due to changing conditions

Kempton
8:20 Roc De Prince (7th of 10)

Early Price: Roc De Prince 4.30

Worcester
2:30 Another Trump (non-runner)

SUMMARY 2 for 2 on the day, Another Trump NR.  Roc De Prince went off favourite while Rothesay drifted from 4/1 to 7/1 at the off


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Ayr
2:40 Polish Crown (3rd) -1.00
3:40 Breezolini EW (2nd BFSP 4.98/2.12) +0.05

Kempton
6:50 Moonlit Dancer EW (10th of 11) -1.00

Worcester
4:00 Nataani (1st BFSP 3.55) +2.55
5:00 The Lemonpie EW (unplaced) -1.00

Additional selections to be posted before 2PM


SUMMARY One winner and an EW placing equals a 2 for 5 strike rate.  Polish Crown was the disappointment of the day while Breezolini moved in from 7/1 to go off favourite, beaten by a 28/1 Bond Fastrac.  LSP wager of 5 points would have returned a loss of -.40


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