I have a solid strike rate at Lingfield. Over six meetings, I am 14 for 16 (88%).
But after one pass through the form form Monday's meeting, I had no selections, so moved onto Kempton and Ffos Las.
When I returned to Lingfield, I did another pass without a solid selection.
The third pass produced one horse; Watheeq. But it felt forced and passed on the race.
Despite historically doing well at the course, it had no influence on the read. All the early odds fave's, regardless of their finishing positions, had been in races involving decent competition who had produced subsequent results. It was as obvious as when the opposite is apparent.
Watheeq won his race by a length.
Here's how Lingfield panned out.
Of the seven early odd 'faves':
4 remained fave's at race time.
3 drifted from their 11AM price to 2F at the off.
5 of 7 'early faves' won their race.
Both horses that lost came in second, Tango Sky losing by a shoulder.
A perfect example of sticking to your read and don't force the selections when they don't come.
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At Kempton, the opposite happened. I ended up with selections in four of the seven races. I went through the four a second time but decided to go with it. In the past two months, at various tracks, I have had five clean sheets when I have had four to five selections. So my confidence out weighs the high percentage of the card that I have flagged up.
2 of 4 won their race. And on review of the selections and the results, perhaps I should have passed on Brigadoon who was given 7 lbs for having Michael Murphy on board.
Ffos Las remained 100% on a day where 3 of 7 early odds fave's won their race.
- - -
WEAK FAVES FOR 14-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Ayr: 5 meetings: 10 for 13 (77%)
Bath: 4 meetings: 5 for 11 (45%)
Wolverhampton: 4 meetings: 11 for 11 (100%)
AYR
2:50 Giorgios Dragon
3:20 Crown Counsel
3:50 Hawdyerwheesht
BATH
3:00 Fire King
5:00 Croquembouche
WOLVERHAMPTON
4:40 Porgy
5:10 Princess Gail
RESULT: All seven selections lost. Both horses were unplaced at Bath while all three at Ayr came in 2nd. So far, this week, 7 of 13 selections have come in second.
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SHAPESHIFTER'S WORLD
Comments: 2
TheGreenGobli, yes, a few drifters today. Two weeks ago, compared the 11AM read to the off and almost all moved in (thus more value if I waited). I also kept track of prices "in-running", and most that moved out more than 30% would be matched during the race at around 10% above the 11AM price (BUT not all got matched).
Today, Crown Counsel was a 'rollercoaster' on pricing. 5.9 at 11AM / out to 6.8 around 5 minutes before the off. Then into 5.4. Then 6.8 at the off, shooting into 5.5 seconds after the off.
So perhaps a 'keep bet' at the price that you are comfortable to go up to.
And though the stats are based on laying the 'weak faves', perhaps the angle is to put a line through the horse and look for the value back for the race.
As well, I mentioned this on an earlier posting: There has to be a line where a horse that is an early fave drifts and becomes a value EW or place bet. But this is up to an individual to decide.
Today, Crown Counsel was a 'rollercoaster' on pricing. 5.9 at 11AM / out to 6.8 around 5 minutes before the off. Then into 5.4. Then 6.8 at the off, shooting into 5.5 seconds after the off.
So perhaps a 'keep bet' at the price that you are comfortable to go up to.
And though the stats are based on laying the 'weak faves', perhaps the angle is to put a line through the horse and look for the value back for the race.
As well, I mentioned this on an earlier posting: There has to be a line where a horse that is an early fave drifts and becomes a value EW or place bet. But this is up to an individual to decide.
superb selections as always!!!