SHAPESHIFTER

The week up to end of day Thursday: 14 selections 5 winners (36% strike rate) 2 each ways returning dividends A risk of 14 points would have returned a LSP profit of [b]+11.50[/b] (82% ROI) [b]UPDATE: All selections are up. Good luck with your evening and have a good weekend[/b] WEAK FAVES FOR 22-February[/b] [i]none [/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Lingfield 2:30 Flavius Victor [i](result: 6th of 7)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 3:05 Diamond Vine [b]EW[/b] [i](2nd BFSP 6.20/2.64)[/i] [b]+0.30[/b] 3:40 Silverware [i](5th of 6)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:40 Sail Home [i](1st BFSP 4.20)[/i] [b]+3.00[/b] Wolverhampton 7:30 Jumbo Prado [b]EW[/b] [i](3rd BFSP 7.32/2.52)[/i] [b]+0.25[/b] 8:00 Lean On Pete [b]EW[/b] [i](3rd BFSP 8.80/3.19)[/i]...

Yesterday, the reads at Catterick proved a disappointment. Mixed Message needed the whole race to win, taking a different line to the finish and suprising several in-running players (the results say it hit 100, the bulk more up to around 60). George Rooke won the race but I felt was under pressure in the end but managed to finish a length ahead of the field. The selections to back made up for the 0 for 4 performance on Monday. I read over my selections and can see quickly where I compromised. I took Mabaany EW but it hadn't raced over soft before. I had focused too hard on times and ratings I had over firm and good, both over shorter distances. So the step up in distance coupled with the soft going should have been enough to put a line through the horse rather than put a bet on....

There are times when you feel like you can't read a comic book let alone horse form. I do a 'post mortem' on most race selections. I'll note why it went right or wrong or look at another runner in the race to figure out which aspect or course stood out that should be the 'indicator' on why it ran well or poorly. The past ten days, there has been a fair amount of post mortem analysis. But despite having been knocked on the chin several times, it's a matter of remaining focused and being careful that I don't 'over think' or get 'gun shy' with my selections. Monday, I missed the first three races due to ringing phones and a visiting Canadian business partner who dubbed me his 'P.A.' after leaving his phone in a taxi. It was disheartening to return to the screen and see nothing ...

Just the selections today after a weekend of travel. Best of luck with your week. I've added in 'Early Prices' that is the price that was available between 11 and 12. This is nothing more than a guide since whether a horse steams or drifts, I will post the Betfair SP with the results. [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 24-SEPTEMBER[/b] Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races Strike rates: Hamilton: 2 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%) Kempton: 6 meetings: 11 for 14 (79%) Leicester: 3 meetings: 7 for 7 (100%) Hamilton 2:10 Jack Luey [i](Result: 1st BFSP 4.30)[/i] 4:40 Windygoul Lad [i](2nd in photo)[/i] [i]Early prices: Jack Luey 4.60 / 4.10[/i] Kempton 4:20 Intransigen [i](1st BFSP 3.73)[/i] 5:20 Cruiser [i](5th of 8)[/i] 5:50 Great Shot[i] (8th of...

[b]SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK OF 17 to 21 SEPTEMBER[/b] FOR THE WEEK: 23 for 36 selections (64%) SEPTEMBER TO DATE: 78 for 110 (71%) [b]SELECTIONS TO BACK[/b] 14 selections Return at LSP: 1.68 ROI 12% Followers hit 100 this week. Thank you. [i][b]Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM[/b][/i] Friday, 21-September [i]Just focusing on 'weak faves' today and giving the 'writer' the day off.[/i] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 21-SEPTEMBER[/b] Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races Strike rates: Ayr: 6 meetings: 13 for 16 (81%) Brighton: 8 meetings: 19 for 22 (86%) Lingfield: 8 meetings: 16 for 18 (89%) Newbury: 2 meetings: 1 for 3 (33%) Wolverhampton: 8 meetings: 21 for 23 (91%) Ayr 2:50 Majestic Moon[i] ...

[b][i]Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM[/i][/b] Thursday, 20-September I've accepted the ups and downs that go with the world of gambling (Wednesday - 4 for 8 on 'weak fave' selections). This is mainly down to learning to subdue any periods when I felt like I had the "midas touch' when every selection in every sport comes together as planned. It helps keep a perspective on the overall rather than 'the moment'. It means having to remained focused. I used to have to do that when I played golf. When I had a bad hole, I would pause and leave it behind me before I hit the next tee shot. I then had to notch up my focus rather than let that bad hole suck me in. I also don't allow 'luck' to come into my mindset. Okay, yes, there are moments when...

On Tuesday, I flagged up Diamond Belle as a 'weak fave'. With just four runners, it is often easy to compare horses. If someone took note of the times that horses had done, little or no difference would have been found between the runners. But this is where knowing the tracks, standard times and, ultimately the speed ratings come in handy. Even looking at the surface, taking the times against the tracks raced, Diamond Belle had achieved times on what I consider 'easier' tracks where the standard times are higher. From there, when I looked at my ratings, it confirmed this. Others must have noted the same since the horse drifted out past the other three and eventually became one-paced two furlongs from home. Both my each way's ran well yesterday, Comrade Bond finishing a...

[i][b]Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM[/b][/i] Tuesday, 18-September Over the past few weeks, I noticed that despite having the opinion that certain horses were 'weak faves', most remained favourites in the market. Monday was the opposite. UK racing looked like it was suffering a post-Doncaster hang-over. All day, the markets were changing as punters tried to form opinions on horses whose ratings were closer to my age than usual. And come race time, again, the movements were very apparent and sometimes surprising. I watched the markets throughout the day and only on a handful of occasions was the money right. And, in my case, despite both having solid drifts, two of the 'weak faves' won their race. It was also more apparent than on other ...

[i][b]Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM[/b][/i] Monday, 17-September I enjoyed Doncaster. The racing remained top-notch right through to the final furlongs and all the speculation and results gave racers and pundits plenty to chat about. Watching J P O'Brien reminded me of how exciting sports was as both a spectator and a participant when I was the same age. I had my share of moments from sailing, ice hockey, soccer and golf. I walked away with trophies in everything I did and was privileged to tour as an amateur golfer for three summers from eighteen to twenty. But to see that young man with such a responsibility hold his composure both during the heat of the race and afterwards was pretty special. With most major meets, I find betting over...