SHAPESHIFTER

Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM

STAT: Last week: 26/36 (72%). September to date: 55 for 74 (74%)


Friday, 14-September

Thursday's racing was more 'stable' than Wednesday.  I found the mid-week racing challenging with the going and weather changing constantly through the day.  When the weather goes the way it did, you have to work hard to stay ahead of the markets.

Instead, Thursday, I got to focus on the races.  The pace at Doncaster was fantastic and some superb racing.  It's amazing to watch racing where the depth in quality is fantastic and the pilots are all top notch.

You appreciate the strategy and movement as the race evolves.  Unlike football where you have ninety minutes and time to change strategies and adjust to your opponents when things aren't going your way, jockey's have to make key decisions every few meters preparing for the dash to the line. 

Even those who despise Jamie Spencer's 'come from behind' approach have to have appreciated his efforts yesterday.  For me, I profited on what I thought was his best chance of the day with Amadeus Wolfe Tone which was his second winner of the day.  Then, a race later, I had to watch him ride my second 'weak fave' of the day at Doncaster, Trade Storm, and hope that his ability to ride the track that day would not be enough to get extra out of the David Simcock horse.

It didn't and Doncaster ended up a positive day with both 'weak faves' outside the frame and 2 of 3 races paying dividends with selections to back.

Last night, a streak of 18 at Wolverhampton came to an end when Alnoomaas won (BFSP 2.17).  I looked at the previous runs and went with the play knowing that Richard Hughes was on board.   There are a handful of jockey's that get 'extra' out of a horse and Richard Hughes is one of them.  What won that race was the brilliant start that allowed Alnoomaas to settle out front, eventually winning by a challenged length.  Any other jockey, I think the outcome would have been different.

Like Jamie Spencer in the afternoon, I had a back and a 'weak fave' and Richard Hughes gave me a run for my money on Imjam River who finished second by 3/4 of a length behind Yungaburra.


WEAK FAVES FOR 14-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Chester: 1 meeting: 0 for 1 (0%)
Doncaster: 7 meetings: 8 for 10 (80%)
Sandown: 2 meetings: 2 for 3 (66%)
Wolverhampton: 8 meetings: 19 for 20 (95%)


Chester
2:45 Everlong (result: 1st BFSP 2.70)
4:25 Commend (5th of 8)
5:00 See Clearly  (3rd)

Doncaster
1:50 Sir Graham Wade (1st BFSP 3.50)
4:05 Duke Of Firenze (6th of 16)

Sandown
3:05 Basseterre (7th of 10)
3:40 Presburg (2nd)

Wolverhampton
No selections

SUMMARY: After two selections back to back winning their race, the next five were successful. Everlong (2:45 at Chester) is perhaps the worse read of the close to 300 I have made to date finishing 14 lengths ahead of the 2nd place runner, Merry Jaunt, in a 10 furlong race.


Stand-out recommendations to back:

Chester
3:20 Countrywide Flame RESULT: 1st BFSP 3.35 +2.35

Doncaster
4:05 "two against the field" Macs Power EW and Rassam EW -2.00

SUMMARY:A pleasing call with Countrywide Flame though the horse needed the line.  4 points risked gives a return of +.35 (8% ROI)



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