SHAPESHIFTER

On Tuesday, I flagged up Diamond Belle as a 'weak fave'.  With just four runners, it is often easy to compare horses.  If someone took note of the times that horses had done, little or no difference would have been found between the runners.  But this is where knowing the tracks, standard times and, ultimately the speed ratings come in handy. 

Even looking at the surface, taking the times against the tracks raced, Diamond Belle had achieved times on what I consider 'easier' tracks where the standard times are higher.  From there, when I looked at my ratings, it confirmed this.

Others must have noted the same since the horse drifted out past the other three and eventually became one-paced two furlongs from home.


Both my each way's ran well yesterday, Comrade Bond finishing a competitive 3rd and Suzie's A Class Act unfortunately beaten by my selected 'weak fave'. 

Taking on longer priced horses can be frustrating since when I'm wrong, I'm usually really wrong with the horse fading and finishing well out of the frame with barely a commentator mention during the race. 

Once I have a few selections, one of my approaches is to sometimes go to the Timeform result pages and look at the odds.  If you look at Comrade Bond's in-running, besides the wins, you'll see that the prices matched indicate efforts made:

BFSP 8 into 4.70 in-running
13.48 into 2.66
12.18 to sub 1.30

Obviously I am simplifying this but once you fiddle with goings, distances, etc, and couple this with race description, you can usually see if the horse will give you a 'run for your money' or see if it is exposed and tends to run at the odds on offer rather than challenging for the line.

Couple this with a jockey that can get 'extra' out of a runner and you'll find yourself landing a 12/1 shot that fuels you for the next three days.


WEAK FAVES FOR 19-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Beverley: 4 meeting: 4 for 6 (66%)
Sandown: 3 meetings: 4 for 5 (80%)
Yarmouth: 7 meetings: 17 for 20 (85%)

Beverley
3:05 Magical Rose (Result: 1st BFSP 2.90)
4:10 Fear Nothing (3rd)

Sandown
2:20 Rocket Rob (1st: BFSP 4.37)
4:00 Tazahum (2nd by a neck)
5:05 Quality Pearl (11th of 13) *drifted out past 8's.

Yarmouth
3:50 Anjaz (3rd)
4:20 Shenas Dream (1st BFSP 3.93)
4:55 My Propeller (1st: BFSP 3.65)

SUMMARY A sub-par performance with only 4 of 8 calls being correct.


Stand-out recommendations to back:

Beverley
3:40 Just Like Heaven EW (2nd: BFSP 5.96 / 2.12) +.05

Sandown
4:35 Royal Empire (2nd) -1.00

Yarmouth
2:40 Links Drive Lady EW (1st: BFSP 9.44 / 2.90) +5.20
5:25 Arch Villain (3rd) -1.00

SUMMARY Two win only bets man placed in their races, Royal Empire being the disappointment of the two. Both EW's paid dividends with Links Drive Lady being the hilite of the day. 4 points wagered returns +3.25

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