SHAPESHIFTER

[b][i]Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM[/i][/b] Thursday, 20-September I've accepted the ups and downs that go with the world of gambling (Wednesday - 4 for 8 on 'weak fave' selections). This is mainly down to learning to subdue any periods when I felt like I had the "midas touch' when every selection in every sport comes together as planned. It helps keep a perspective on the overall rather than 'the moment'. It means having to remained focused. I used to have to do that when I played golf. When I had a bad hole, I would pause and leave it behind me before I hit the next tee shot. I then had to notch up my focus rather than let that bad hole suck me in. I also don't allow 'luck' to come into my mindset. Okay, yes, there are moments when...

On Tuesday, I flagged up Diamond Belle as a 'weak fave'. With just four runners, it is often easy to compare horses. If someone took note of the times that horses had done, little or no difference would have been found between the runners. But this is where knowing the tracks, standard times and, ultimately the speed ratings come in handy. Even looking at the surface, taking the times against the tracks raced, Diamond Belle had achieved times on what I consider 'easier' tracks where the standard times are higher. From there, when I looked at my ratings, it confirmed this. Others must have noted the same since the horse drifted out past the other three and eventually became one-paced two furlongs from home. Both my each way's ran well yesterday, Comrade Bond finishing a...

[i][b]Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM[/b][/i] Tuesday, 18-September Over the past few weeks, I noticed that despite having the opinion that certain horses were 'weak faves', most remained favourites in the market. Monday was the opposite. UK racing looked like it was suffering a post-Doncaster hang-over. All day, the markets were changing as punters tried to form opinions on horses whose ratings were closer to my age than usual. And come race time, again, the movements were very apparent and sometimes surprising. I watched the markets throughout the day and only on a handful of occasions was the money right. And, in my case, despite both having solid drifts, two of the 'weak faves' won their race. It was also more apparent than on other ...

A few days ago, someone messaged that he had noticed a fair number of the 'weak faves' come in second and wondered if I had stats against BFSP for backing. Well, yes, in percentage terms, the number of 2nds has increased from 16% in July (17 out of 109 races) to 27% in August (22/83) and since I watch as many of the races is possible, the underlying stat is how many races I held my breath this month has also increased. Overall, the percentage of horses in August have that [u]won or placed[/u] (including betfair markets i.e. 8 on the card, one NR makes 7 running the race but betfair still pay first 3) has increased since July. July: 55 of 108 had placed in races with place markets (51%) So far in August: 52 of 83 (61%) Infact, yesterday, including the winning horse, 6 of ...

Yesterday was a turn-around from how the week started. 6 of 7 selections not only lost their races but all finished outside the place markets. The only winner was Kashmiri Star who had a nice jump at the start and a solid pace throughout the race. I also took on Pharoh Jake for the third time in three weeks. I hesitated on the decision since I didn't want to fall into the 'trap' of giving back my previous gains on the horse in 70 seconds. But the read of no solid competition to date coupled with performance against those fields said that once again the opening market had the race wrong. The previous two times, Pharoh Jake drifted before the off. This time, the horse remained favorite but, in the end, finished 6th of 7. As mentioned yesterday, breaking even can often frustrate...

Friday's racing produced a good example of a 'weak fave'. In the 3:45 at Southwell, Jockey Richard Johnson took Kack Handed to the front from the first hurdle offering up a steady pace to the field. Early on, the thought of "made all" crosses my mind but you simply have to remind myself that it is a 2 miler over hurdles and not a 7 furlong flat race. Just over half-way, Kack Handed was still leading over the hurdles while Jamie Moore and Charlie Poste were content following. It wasn't until around three furlongs out that they made a collective move to challenge the leader. As they book-cased Kack Handed, this is where the analysis becomes apparent. Before Friday, Richard Johnson has ridden the horse 16 times, winning four. But when the challenge came, he asked for a...