Yesterday was a turn-around from how the week started. 6 of 7 selections not only lost their races but all finished outside the place markets. The only winner was Kashmiri Star who had a nice jump at the start and a solid pace throughout the race.
I also took on Pharoh Jake for the third time in three weeks. I hesitated on the decision since I didn't want to fall into the 'trap' of giving back my previous gains on the horse in 70 seconds. But the read of no solid competition to date coupled with performance against those fields said that once again the opening market had the race wrong.
The previous two times, Pharoh Jake drifted before the off. This time, the horse remained favorite but, in the end, finished 6th of 7.
As mentioned yesterday, breaking even can often frustrate a punter and you find yourself 'searching' for new angles or forcing a read to make gains. Instead, I stuck to what I know, chose two tracks to focus hard on, and end the day with solid gains.
WEAK FAVES FOR 9-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Brighton: 3 meetings - 9 for 10 (90%)
Haydock: no selections to date
Yarmouth: 4 meetings - 9 for 11 (82%)
BRIGHTON
3:50 Varnish
5:55 Tidal Run
HAYDOCK
5:45 Cape Rising
YARMOUTH
3:00 Yes Its The Boy
4:30 Ryan Style
5:00 Twin Shadow
5:30 Zarosa
RESULT: another 6 for 7 days. Tidal Wave won at Brighton at BFSP 2.88.
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SHAPESHIFTER'S WORLD
Comments: 2
Hi Owen,
re: drifters.
first, I'm a believer that any time you take a profit, do. Especially if conditions are changing or the jockey you are taking on is having a fantastic day. This can add up over a period of time and is one of the benefits of the exchange.
But, that said, I have a fair amount of confidence in my strike rate to go with it.
I can't be the only person who thinks that a horse won't win a race. My approach is to find horses that shouldn't be fave. The market figures this out a good percentage of the time, even if it is a drift of a dozen ticks.
So often you can trade to reduce your risk. One linear approach:
Let's say you are laying a horse at and targeting to make £10.00 and the odds are BF 4.00.
This means you are risking £30.00
Make your initial lay £15.00 with the intention of trading out £5.00 PRIOR to the race.
By setting a back at £5 at 5.00 means that when matched, you will now be laying £10 but your risk will be £25.00 on the selection. Again, this can add up over a period of time.
**BUT** you need to trade out BEFORE the race. You are now carrying more than you intended to risk. It sometimes mean closing out on the £5 sub 4.0 if the price moves in. As well, you may consider taking part of your £10 and converting it to a back.
Stay focused on your targets and risks.
You can also take the approach of trading most or all out when there is a solid drift then re-entering the market at a lower amount, even setting a 'keep' bet in-running.
I have often placed an amount that would take a 100% drift to reach. i.e. lay at 4.00 and back at 7.00.
When I check the market, I'll find it was matched an hour before the race and now has moved back in.
At the end of the day, it comes down to your confidence on the play whether it be laying a horse or backing a football team for the whole 90 minutes.
re: drifters.
first, I'm a believer that any time you take a profit, do. Especially if conditions are changing or the jockey you are taking on is having a fantastic day. This can add up over a period of time and is one of the benefits of the exchange.
But, that said, I have a fair amount of confidence in my strike rate to go with it.
I can't be the only person who thinks that a horse won't win a race. My approach is to find horses that shouldn't be fave. The market figures this out a good percentage of the time, even if it is a drift of a dozen ticks.
So often you can trade to reduce your risk. One linear approach:
Let's say you are laying a horse at and targeting to make £10.00 and the odds are BF 4.00.
This means you are risking £30.00
Make your initial lay £15.00 with the intention of trading out £5.00 PRIOR to the race.
By setting a back at £5 at 5.00 means that when matched, you will now be laying £10 but your risk will be £25.00 on the selection. Again, this can add up over a period of time.
**BUT** you need to trade out BEFORE the race. You are now carrying more than you intended to risk. It sometimes mean closing out on the £5 sub 4.0 if the price moves in. As well, you may consider taking part of your £10 and converting it to a back.
Stay focused on your targets and risks.
You can also take the approach of trading most or all out when there is a solid drift then re-entering the market at a lower amount, even setting a 'keep' bet in-running.
I have often placed an amount that would take a 100% drift to reach. i.e. lay at 4.00 and back at 7.00.
When I check the market, I'll find it was matched an hour before the race and now has moved back in.
At the end of the day, it comes down to your confidence on the play whether it be laying a horse or backing a football team for the whole 90 minutes.
i notice some of the selections drift on the betfair markets leading up to the race. if you have made the lay bet early and the horse drifts, do you think about greening up? or let the bet run.
thanks again,
Owen