SHAPESHIFTER

Based on comments and messages I receive, the focus remains that this is simply about laying a horse. First, yes, it is the premise since I am saying that, based on the horses performance on previous races and the competition it faced, it is selected since I see factors that say it is taking on a stronger field and/or conditions that won't suit. Secondly, I put up my figures based on laying the horse. This allows perspective. But I still feel the better returns can be found if you ever are able to put a line through the early fave and work through the form from there. The risk can often be less and the return potential be more, even if dutching two or three in the field. The key is value over the long term. [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 9-OCTOBER[/b] Selections based on the quality...

[b]SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK OF 17 to 21 SEPTEMBER[/b] FOR THE WEEK: 23 for 36 selections (64%) SEPTEMBER TO DATE: 78 for 110 (71%) [b]SELECTIONS TO BACK[/b] 14 selections Return at LSP: 1.68 ROI 12% Followers hit 100 this week. Thank you. [i][b]Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM[/b][/i] Friday, 21-September [i]Just focusing on 'weak faves' today and giving the 'writer' the day off.[/i] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 21-SEPTEMBER[/b] Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races Strike rates: Ayr: 6 meetings: 13 for 16 (81%) Brighton: 8 meetings: 19 for 22 (86%) Lingfield: 8 meetings: 16 for 18 (89%) Newbury: 2 meetings: 1 for 3 (33%) Wolverhampton: 8 meetings: 21 for 23 (91%) Ayr 2:50 Majestic Moon[i] ...

[i][b]Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM[/b][/i] Monday, 17-September I enjoyed Doncaster. The racing remained top-notch right through to the final furlongs and all the speculation and results gave racers and pundits plenty to chat about. Watching J P O'Brien reminded me of how exciting sports was as both a spectator and a participant when I was the same age. I had my share of moments from sailing, ice hockey, soccer and golf. I walked away with trophies in everything I did and was privileged to tour as an amateur golfer for three summers from eighteen to twenty. But to see that young man with such a responsibility hold his composure both during the heat of the race and afterwards was pretty special. With most major meets, I find betting over...

[b]WEAK FAVES' are posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM. On occasion, there will be evening racing posted around 30 minutes before the first race. July: 87 for 109 - 80%. August: 106 for 134 - 79% September to date: 29 for 38 - 76%[/b] Friday, 7-Sept Yesterday finished with 9 for 11 selections being landed including 4 for 4 with Kempton in the evening. The 'bonus stat' was of the four 'early faves' I passed on at Kempton, two won. The other stat that is standing out is that the average BFSP of the horses that do win their races is down to 2.90 for September compared to 3.90 for August. Yesterday, the two horses that won their races were both odds on. Hopefully this trend will continue. Yesterday's backs showed that the approach is still a 'work in progress'...

A few days ago, someone messaged that he had noticed a fair number of the 'weak faves' come in second and wondered if I had stats against BFSP for backing. Well, yes, in percentage terms, the number of 2nds has increased from 16% in July (17 out of 109 races) to 27% in August (22/83) and since I watch as many of the races is possible, the underlying stat is how many races I held my breath this month has also increased. Overall, the percentage of horses in August have that [u]won or placed[/u] (including betfair markets i.e. 8 on the card, one NR makes 7 running the race but betfair still pay first 3) has increased since July. July: 55 of 108 had placed in races with place markets (51%) So far in August: 52 of 83 (61%) Infact, yesterday, including the winning horse, 6 of ...

Yesterday was the the second day in a row of getting 6 for 7 selections right. The exception was Tidal Wave who won at Brighton at 2.88 BFSP. However, unlike the day before where six selections finished outside the frame, five finished in the top three. I took on Varnish with Richard Hughes on board for the 6th time. The four recent rides had produced a win and three 2nds. As well, the previous day, the Hannon/Hughes partnership had produced two of the jockey's three wins at the track. But the read indicated to me that yesterday would not only be a challenging step up in distance but, to date, previous fields hadn't produced decent results since racing with Varnish. Racing mid-field, the combination of distance and competition proved too much and the horse tailed off in the final...

Yesterday was a turn-around from how the week started. 6 of 7 selections not only lost their races but all finished outside the place markets. The only winner was Kashmiri Star who had a nice jump at the start and a solid pace throughout the race. I also took on Pharoh Jake for the third time in three weeks. I hesitated on the decision since I didn't want to fall into the 'trap' of giving back my previous gains on the horse in 70 seconds. But the read of no solid competition to date coupled with performance against those fields said that once again the opening market had the race wrong. The previous two times, Pharoh Jake drifted before the off. This time, the horse remained favorite but, in the end, finished 6th of 7. As mentioned yesterday, breaking even can often frustrate...

I once told a mentor of mine that I was frustrated because my recent run of bets was 'breaking even'. He raised his eyebrows and smiled. "You're frustrated because you're breaking even." He then shook his head. He had explained to me that gains were based on streaks. In between came periods when you had to deal with losses and that over a period, if you were breaking even, this was a good thing. - - - The stand-out stat for me on my performance isn't the low percentage of successful calls but the number that have placed. I've always maintained around a 50% strike-rate on placing (based on betfairs markets. i.e. ). But this week, 79% (11 of 14), 5 of those 2nd. At the same time, the average BFSP on horses that won this week is 3.4, down from the average of 3.60 through ...