SHAPESHIFTER

WEAK FAVES' are posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM.  On occasion, there will be evening racing posted around 30 minutes before the first race. 
July: 87 for 109 - 80%. 
August: 106 for 134 - 79%
September to date: 29 for 38 - 76%

Friday, 7-Sept

Yesterday finished with 9 for 11 selections being landed including 4 for 4 with Kempton in the evening.  The 'bonus stat' was of the four 'early faves' I passed on at Kempton, two won.

The other stat that is standing out is that the average BFSP of the horses that do win their races is down to 2.90 for September compared to 3.90 for August.  Yesterday, the two horses that won their races were both odds on.  Hopefully this trend will continue.

Yesterday's backs showed that the approach is still a 'work in progress' essentially giving back Wednesday's winnings and a bit more.  I intend to pursue this further and will post with confidence.  The rest will come down to the horse and jockey.



WEAK FAVES FOR 7-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Brighton: 6 meetings: 14 for 17 (82%)
Chepstow: 1 meeting: 3 for 3 (100%)
Kempton: 5 meetings: 10 for 13 (77%)


Brighton
2:10 Hikma (Result: 8th of 12)
2:40 Highlife Dancer (5th of 12)
4:20 Annes Rocket (5th of 9)

Chepstow
3:55 Red Avalanche (3rd)
4:30 Offbeat Safaris (1st BFSP 2.64)
5:35 Spic n Span (8th of 10)

Kempton
No 'weak faves' tonight but one EW added below at 6PM

SUMMARY: Five for six on the day.  I identified two horses that ran that ran earlier this week. Red Avalanche four days earlier and also finished third then.  Highlife Dancer won on the 5th at Bath but needed the whole 13 furlongs to do so.  Today at Brighton, a competitive earlier pace over a shorter distance resulted in 5th.

Offbeat Safiris winning brought a streak to an end which was 12 successful calls in succession.

The week finishes with 29 for 38 (76%).  The average price of the nine horses that won their races: BFSP 2.90, down 33% from September's average


Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:

Haydock
2:00 Queen Grace- Ran well over various goings but performs best over quicker ground. Dictated last time out under same jockey, Shane Gray, who and gives 7 lbs. RESULT: never in contention. Finished 5th of 10

2:30 Sunny Side Up - 3 wins from 4 races.  I went through the card and can't find 'the danger'.  Laura Barry on board again giving 7 lbs.  A decent price with conditions and distance to suit. RESULT: Disappointing run that perhaps a line should be ignored.  Finished 7th of 9

Chepstow
6:05 The Lemonpie - Back onto the flat but worth a minor win bet.  Steady, strong performer that has surprised fields over the jumps.  If it drifts past 5/1, take the EW angle  RESULT: Drifted to 14/1 ran behind the pace the entire race finishing 9th of 12

Brighton
5:25 Byton EW- A decent EW in a race that offers no clear favourite.  Reservation is that Henry Candy's record of late at Brighton is not strong but Dane O'Neils abilities on faster ground on sub 8 furlong races should bring the best out of the horse. RESULT: Ran well with the leading pack but faded in the final furlong and a half

Kempton (added 6:00)
6:20 Forgive EW - A decent price for a horse that has been performing with consistence.  Distance shouldn't be a problem and if it can handle the surface, it should challenge strongly for the line. RESULT: Won @ 9.00 / 2.35



SUMMARY Though the "recommendations" are a 'work in progress', the selections were riddled with disappointment. A solid run by Forgive lands an 8/1 EW winner and an overall profit of  1/2 a point on the day at LSP. 



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