SHAPESHIFTER

I once told a mentor of mine that I was frustrated because my recent run of bets was 'breaking even'.  He raised his eyebrows and smiled.  "You're frustrated because you're breaking even."  He then shook his head.

He had explained to me that gains were based on streaks.  In between came periods when you had to deal with losses and that over a period, if you were breaking even, this was a good thing.

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The stand-out stat for me on my performance isn't the low percentage of successful calls but the number that have placed.  I've always maintained around a 50% strike-rate on placing (based on betfairs markets. i.e. ).  But this week, 79% (11 of 14), 5 of those 2nd.

At the same time, the average BFSP on horses that won this week is 3.4, down from the average of 3.60 through July.

WEAK FAVES FOR 8-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

BRIGHTON
2:50 Kashmiri Star
3:50 Great Shot
4:50 Emperors Waltz
5:50 Pharoh Jake

NEWCASTLE
2:10 Old Man Clegg
4:40 Emily Hall
5:10 Celestial Dawn

RESULTS: 6 of 7 were unplaced.  Kashmiri Star won at Brighton (3.10 BFSP).

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