SHAPESHIFTER

Monday felt like, well, a Monday. The day started well with Gentleman Anshan giving an excellent run into second to be beaten by the fave, Nobel Legend. After that, I felt like I didn't have a feel for the day. It happens. Especially when you're at it five days a week. Monday was a day where I took little from the day. Gentleman Anshan will remain in the notebook along with Polar Venture who ran well in defeat. But other than that, a day to leave in the bottom drawer [b]UPDATE[/b] [b]All races are up. Best of luck with your day[/b] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 5-March [/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 5-MARCH[/b] Exeter 3:00 Presenting Arms [i](result: 16th of 18)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:00 De La Bech [i](1st BFSP 2.48)[/i]...

Like Storm Survivor on Wednesday, Ballypatrick gave a run for the money at Huntingdon yesterday but was caught at the line. But, like the day before, the following race at the same track produced a good price winner in the form of Art Professor who had been supported all day. I was one for two on shorter priced horses yesterday. Mr Mole won as expected for Paul Nicholls and AP McCoy while Close Touch didn't like the step up in distance who was well beaten by African Gold. Like the previous day, not a lot of winners but the value kept the day at more or less break even. [b]WEAK FAVES & VALUE PLAYS IS PUBLISHED MONDAY TO FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE FIRST RACE OF THE DAY. WEAK FAVES FOR 8-February[/b] none [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Bangor 1:30...

Friday showed a bit of how I weigh out the psychology. In the afternoon, I had landed 5 for 6 in the afternoon. The night before, I had scored 4 for 4 with Kempton. But on reading Friday's cards, I had passed on all but the first race of the evening; the 6:20. I had circled Roayh and was confident of the call despite being one of two Godophin runners, something that also pushed the odds in. In the same race, I found that Forgive looked solid as an EW. But with a successful afternoon, I passed on the lay which, at LSP would have risked just shy of a 1/4 of the week's profit. Instead, a flutter on Forgive which proved to be a success at 8/1. The flip side is that in previous weeks when having a rough day, I have often passed on the evening card with the reasoning that I...

Reading through the meetings yesterday, I found it difficult to see through the card clearly, ending up with four over three meetings. It came down several factors including an onslaught of trainers and jockeys that hadn't been in the early top slot. But mainly, when I went through the cards, I found several solid, backable faves and it became clear it was a day for backing rather than laying. Of the 23 morning faves (19 clear faves and 2 races with joint faves) over the three tracks I studied, ten won their races (43% strike rate). The return backing a point per horse would have been been just shy of 15 pts (ROI of 73%), some paying better if you had placed your bets earlier. By the end of the day, of my for selections, three had won confirming my reservations. - - - Before...