SHAPESHIFTER

Friday showed a bit of how I weigh out the psychology.

In the afternoon, I had landed 5 for 6 in the afternoon.  The night before, I had scored 4 for 4 with Kempton.  But on reading Friday's cards, I had passed on all but the first race of the evening; the 6:20.

I had circled Roayh and was confident of the call despite being one of two Godophin runners, something that also pushed the odds in.  In the same race, I found that Forgive looked solid as an EW.

But with a successful afternoon, I passed on the lay which, at LSP would have risked just shy of a 1/4 of the week's profit.  Instead, a flutter on Forgive which proved to be a success at  8/1. 

The flip side is that in previous weeks when having a rough day, I have often passed on the evening card with the reasoning that I didn't want to add to my losses.

For me, finishing the week on a positive note was more important than gaining a point.  But with evening racing coming up, I need to have the confidence that I can take on an evening meeting, something that was supported with the 100% at Kempton on Thursday night. 


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On Friday, Forgive brought the backs into a minor green for the day after four disappointing selections in the afternoon.  Today, I found four at Newcastle, a track where I am 83% at finding 'weak faves'.  I'll be curious to see how the reads evolve.

If you have any views on the selections, feel free to comment.


WEAK FAVES FOR 10-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Bath: 7 meetings: 12 for 19 (63%)
Newcastle: 4 meeting2: 5 for 6 (83%)
Newton Abbot: no meetings to date


BATH
4:20 Stiff Upper Lip (Result: 2nd / 1/2 L)
4:50 Volcanic Jack (1st BFSP 4.53)
5:20 Aleksandar (2nd / hd)

Newcastle
4:30 John Coffey (12th of 16)

Newton Abbot
2:10 Adelar (3rd of 5)
2:40 Jewellery (1st BFSP 2.16)
4:10 Changing The Guard (1st BFSP 3.60)


SUMMARY: a disappointing first time out at Newton Abbot.  4 for 7 on the day.

Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:

BATH
3:20 Diamond Vine EW - has faced several competitive horses and kept up with the pace.  Luke Morris has experience guiding the horse and going should suit. RESULT: was running mid-field and unable to find space but was one-paced one the opening came and never in the race

5:20 Reset CityEW - Has been in the mix in several races. Question mark is Cathy Gannon who needs to step up her riding at the track.  Ran


NEWCASTLE

2:30 Blue Tiger - If you look at 'in-running', 5 of 7 races this horse has been sub-2.0 but has yet to win.  The step back in distance should capitalize on the abilities of early pace.  Paul Hanagan on board for the first time. RESULT: no action from the start and was outraced from the start.

4:00 Zaplamation - A value price for a competitive horse.  Backers of the 2F and 3F could bring it out to 5/1 over towards race time at which point a solid EW play. RESULT: went off at an EW price.  Was held up early and was one paced once the race opened up and finished 4th

4:30 Maltease Ah EW with doubts about the fave, there is room in the frame for this steady performer at a great price. RESULT: ran really well and as expected and in control for the race. Challenged first by Red Shadow then beaten at the line by Xpres Maite by 3/4 length.  A consistent performer and one for the note books.

5:30 Burnwynd Boy - has raced and beaten horses that have raced over a higher mark than today's race.  A good price and any support elsewhere will be from EW punters and won't put me off. UPDATE: drifted into EW territory with 4 places on offer in a 15 runner race (8.0 / 2.20).  RESULT: Price moved back in before the off but never a solid runner in the race finishing a disappointing 5th




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