SHAPESHIFTER

[b]NFL SELECTIONS ARE UP[/b] If you are taking on the NFL this Sunday, I have selections up now: Go to: NORTH AMERICA>BLOGS>SHAPESHIFTER VALUE RATED BETS: NFL WK 6 [b]SUMMARY: 8 to 12 October[/b] A second week of easing into the jumps. Overall, though, taking on the fave's had no momentum through the week with a strike rate of 9 for 16 (56%), the week ending with a total mis-read on how the horses would run at Bath. Though, in hindsight, a couple of bad calls, selections to back returned steady profits as 8 of 17 (47%) returned dividends for +7.90 when calculated against LSP (46% ROI). [b] WEAK FAVES: 12-OCTOBER[/b] The 'writer' has taken the day off. A few selections for the afternoon and will be back this evening for Wolverhampton. [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 12-OCTOBER[/b] Selections...

Friday showed a bit of how I weigh out the psychology. In the afternoon, I had landed 5 for 6 in the afternoon. The night before, I had scored 4 for 4 with Kempton. But on reading Friday's cards, I had passed on all but the first race of the evening; the 6:20. I had circled Roayh and was confident of the call despite being one of two Godophin runners, something that also pushed the odds in. In the same race, I found that Forgive looked solid as an EW. But with a successful afternoon, I passed on the lay which, at LSP would have risked just shy of a 1/4 of the week's profit. Instead, a flutter on Forgive which proved to be a success at 8/1. The flip side is that in previous weeks when having a rough day, I have often passed on the evening card with the reasoning that I...

Yesterday, I took on Cushion who only had one race to date. I usually like more races to cross-reference but when I looked at the race that took place a month ago at Newmarket, there was no evidence that any of the other horses that ran that day were solid performers. Horses that beat Cushion that day: The winner of the race, Everleigh, and Strictly Silca both showed little in the subsequent races while Rainbow Beauty did place under Luke Morris but in a race with little substance. Horses that Cushion beat: Ottauquechee raced over a shorter distance finishing further behind the eventual winner than at Newmarket (though the race was on softer ground) and Kikonga did improve but not enough to indicate it had been a strong competitor at Newmarket. Yesterday was a tight betting race...

I enjoyed watching Frankel run. I had no bet on the race and simply walked away from the desk shortly after the 3:05 to take in the lead-up and the race. It was fantastic to see the horse flip smoothly through the gears and channel all its power along the rail and carry on well past the line. Races like the 3:40 re-ignites the passion that can fuel me through the time spent staring at the stats, filtering through the past to trying to evaluate a likely future. And the sights and sounds of the race quickly dampen all the 'noise' that gambling generates and can muffle our enthusiasm we have for sports. Between Frankel and Black Caviar's runs over the past year, I feel like I have seen some incredible horses in action. I equally enjoyed the 3:05. Yes, Main Sequence was held...

I have a solid strike rate at Lingfield. Over six meetings, I am 14 for 16 (88%). But after one pass through the form form Monday's meeting, I had no selections, so moved onto Kempton and Ffos Las. When I returned to Lingfield, I did another pass without a solid selection. The third pass produced one horse; Watheeq. But it felt forced and passed on the race. Despite historically doing well at the course, it had no influence on the read. All the early odds fave's, regardless of their finishing positions, had been in races involving decent competition who had produced subsequent results. It was as obvious as when the opposite is apparent. Watheeq won his race by a length. Here's how Lingfield panned out. Of the seven early odd 'faves': 4 remained fave's at race...