Yesterday, I took on Cushion who only had one race to date. I usually like more races to cross-reference but when I looked at the race that took place a month ago at Newmarket, there was no evidence that any of the other horses that ran that day were solid performers.
Horses that beat Cushion that day: The winner of the race, Everleigh, and Strictly Silca both showed little in the subsequent races while Rainbow Beauty did place under Luke Morris but in a race with little substance.
Horses that Cushion beat: Ottauquechee raced over a shorter distance finishing further behind the eventual winner than at Newmarket (though the race was on softer ground) and Kikonga did improve but not enough to indicate it had been a strong competitor at Newmarket.
Yesterday was a tight betting race between the top three. But for an early fave to be in contention, it needs to have raced against strong horses and competitive fields. In the case of Newmarket last month, the quality of the field and their subsequent performances did not warrant Cushion being favorite at Goodwood yesterday.
In the 2:55, Cushion did challenge for the line (going 1.30 in-running) but did fade in the finish ending up behind Liber Nauticus and Heading North.
I won't make it a habit of assessing horses with only one or two runs but if one stands out on the day, then it is worth taking on.
WEAK FAVES FOR 5-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Bath: 6 meetings: 10 for 16 (63%)
Hereford: no meetings to date
Lingfield:7 meetings: 15 for 17 (88%)
Bath
3:50 I See You (Result: 2nd / 1.25 L)
4:50 Highlife Dancer (1st BFSP 3.19)
5:20 Ridgeway Sapphire (7th of 12)
Hereford
2:40 Finch Flyer (1st BFSP 2.88)
3:40 Alayir (pulled up)
4:10 Scotsbrook Cloud (1st BFSP 2.17)
Lingfield
4:00 Urban Space (5th of 7)
SUMMARY: Only one track paid dividends today. Overall, 4 for 7.
Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:
Lingfield
2:00 Labienus - competitive race but solid performer over a familiar distance (3.55 at noon)
RESULT: Finished 8th and never factored into the race.
4:30 Debating Society - should perform well over the going and distance in a highly competitive race (4.0 at noon)
RESULT: 1st (BFSP 3.80). Stiff competition but was prominent throughout the race
Bath
4:50 Thundering Home EW - Experience at the distance and should handle any give in the ground. (13.00 at noon in a ten runner affair)
RESULT: 2nd (BFSP 13.73 / 3.48) Moved in throughout the afternoon to 8/1 then drifted heavily just before the off out to 15/1, Despite a solid, strong run, Highlife Dancer pushed pass Thundering Home winning by 2 lengths.
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SHAPESHIFTER'S WORLD
Comments: 3
I haven't looked at Irish racing yet. Right now, the UK calender has me pretty stacked with time. Very often, with smaller fields, the ability to research is easier. But ultimately, laying ALL of a certain criteria doesn't work.
That said, it can often be part of your 'long list' for the day that can be narrowed down.
And place-laying is a great angle either on its own or by combining with a win market lay selections. You end up with three possible pay-outs and if laying a short-priced horse, losing the race but placing can often return a small profit, the big pay-out, of course, coming when it is unplaced.
That said, it can often be part of your 'long list' for the day that can be narrowed down.
And place-laying is a great angle either on its own or by combining with a win market lay selections. You end up with three possible pay-outs and if laying a short-priced horse, losing the race but placing can often return a small profit, the big pay-out, of course, coming when it is unplaced.
thanks , well written and good luck , paul . ,alwaysmufc@gmail.com
I have also noticed that it pays to lay favourites in very small fields (3 0r 4 runners) at Sligo and Tipperary. Don't just lay the win but ALSO lay the place you will be pleasantly surprised at the number of favs that end up last!
Mike Doyle