SHAPESHIFTER

Tuesday brought two decent calls; De La Bech won after coming in from 2/1 in the betting. The race took a fair amount of cross-form but felt confident going with the selection even with A P McCoy's mount, Abnaki, the morning co-fave and eventual disappointment for anyone backing it. Victor Hewgo ran a great race returning the EW dividend. A well paced ride by James Reveley was beaten by Indian Castle making its hurdles debut and made all. A small, manageable loss on the day but still waiting for some momentum to kick in for March. [b]UPDATE[/b] [b]I will be passing on Kempton and will return Thursday. Good luck with your evening[/b] [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 6-March [/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 6-MARCH[/b] Lingfield 2:30...

The very last bet of February finished with Shearian winning at 15/1. The other plus on the day was narrowing Ludlow down to just one race and landing the Venetia Williams runner, Ballyoliver at 71/1. Combined the two each-way bets made up for the 0 for 3 at Southwell, a sign that I still don't have a grip on the track and perhaps questions about the surface and its recovery since flooding at the close of last year. I started reading through February last night reviewing the pluses and minuses, summarizing my notes and preparing for the close of jumps and the start of the new flat season. For 'weak faves', I seem to be wary on restarting them. Perhaps part of the mindset and will update you on this in the coming week. Thanks, again, for your messages in my in-box this morning....

Yesterday, 3 winners emerged from 6 selections. I did take on one horse that was odds on then drifted to evens at the off. Broxbourne was going for his 4th win which was achieved but was challenged right to the line. I took on the call knowing all the factors but looked at the circuit at Lingfield as a straight-up challenge for the horse. The other two at Lingfield were a disappointment, Fonterutoli and Mack's Truck both lacking the mustard it takes to win races. I had three over obstacles. The day started with Be My Deputy drifting before the off and winning. Iron Butterfly's result read's 4th but the 30/1 (BFSP) EW play finished just over a second behind the eventual winner so one for the notebooks over a similar distance. The Fox's Decree won but cashing in the winning...

January had been 'easy' with no heavy streak of losses, several each-ways returning dividend until winners came in. The first two weeks of February were the opposite. At one point I went 14 selections where no money was coming back to me. It came down to a combination of bad race selection and then even worse selections. Last week, win or lose, at least I felt like I had a pulse on the markets. So on Friday when the races at Wolverhampton were coming up, I felt good enough about the afternoon to take on the evening card. But knowing the week had gone well and a fraction of the bank was poised for 'take away', I decided to take the each way angle and, in a sense, play it safe while challenging myself to find a good priced winner. Jumbo Prada did run well, finishing in...

The week up to end of day Thursday: 14 selections 5 winners (36% strike rate) 2 each ways returning dividends A risk of 14 points would have returned a LSP profit of [b]+11.50[/b] (82% ROI) [b]UPDATE: All selections are up. Good luck with your evening and have a good weekend[/b] WEAK FAVES FOR 22-February[/b] [i]none [/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Lingfield 2:30 Flavius Victor [i](result: 6th of 7)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 3:05 Diamond Vine [b]EW[/b] [i](2nd BFSP 6.20/2.64)[/i] [b]+0.30[/b] 3:40 Silverware [i](5th of 6)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:40 Sail Home [i](1st BFSP 4.20)[/i] [b]+3.00[/b] Wolverhampton 7:30 Jumbo Prado [b]EW[/b] [i](3rd BFSP 7.32/2.52)[/i] [b]+0.25[/b] 8:00 Lean On Pete [b]EW[/b] [i](3rd BFSP 8.80/3.19)[/i]...

The week so far: 11 selections 3 winners (27% strike rate) 2 each ways returning dividends A risk of 11 points would have returned a LSP profit of [b]+3.90[/b] (35% ROI) [b]UPDATE: Passing on 8:00 and the 'hands and heels'. Have a good evening.[/b] WEAK FAVES FOR 20-February[/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Kempton 7:30 Clear Praise [b]EW[/b] [i](result: unplaced)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] Lingfield 2:30 Catalina's Diamond [b]EW[/b] [i](1st BFSP 9.60/2.89)[/i] [b]+4.60[/b] 3:35 Lager Time [i](3rd)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:40 Devout [i](1st BFSP 6.20)[/i] [b]+5.00[/b] [b]SUMMARY[/b] [i]Two winners from four selections (50% SR). A risk of 4 points would return a LSP profit of[/i] [b]+7.60[/b] (190% ROI) ...

[i]"You're never alone with a schizophrenic" - Ian Hunter[/i] Looking over the past few days, you would think it was too different people. But, no, it was one person who went through what all punters do which is a period where they start to think "I'll never get another winner." I used to play golf 5 days a week, even if just nine holes in the evening. I loved the game. Besides a right shoulder that now dips in slightly, two major things I learnt from the game: - visualization - leave the bad shots behind you. For visualization, it meant standing behind the ball, picturing it going around the tree, landing in front of the green and rolling up. I would stand until I could see it going between the branches and rolling safely to a halt before leaving the green. It made...

For a second week, Tuesday hit me in the gut. As I watched the racing, the selections showed absolutely no life. I took on the goings at hand and made a read that had no feeling or pulse. I left the day on the desk and will dust it off in a week or so. Luckily, they are few and far between but still can weigh heavy on your decision making if you dwell on it. [b]UPDATE: All selections are up. Good luck if you are playing later races. WEAK FAVES FOR 13-February[/b] [i]none[/i] [i]Early Price:[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Kempton 5:30 Spirit Of Gondree [b]EW[/b] [i](result 3rd BFSP 9.40/3.60)[/i] [b]+0.20[/b] *dead heat for 3rd / partial returns 6:30 Indian Affair [b]EW[/b] [i](1st BFSP 7.20/2.13)[/i] [b]+1.90[/b] *dead heat / in from 11/1 when...

Yesterday, I hi-lighted one of my three selections on the day: [i] Looking back over the week, punters were stung several times by odds on horses under performing. Today, one of my selections, Full Swing, is now odds on around 4/5 with Roc De Prince non-runner. But even when the David O´Meara was in the race, I had confidence in the selection so will be going with it. [/i] The play had 'checked all the boxes' and I went with it feeling the only danger was out of the race. Sure enough, with a small field and punters feeling that a fave was "due to win", the price moved in from 4/5 at 1PM to 1/2 at the off. And Suffice won the race and turned over the odds on fave but did so with, according to my ratings, a performance slower than previous races. This reminds us that...