January had been 'easy' with no heavy streak of losses, several each-ways returning dividend until winners came in.
The first two weeks of February were the opposite. At one point I went 14 selections where no money was coming back to me. It came down to a combination of bad race selection and then even worse selections.
Last week, win or lose, at least I felt like I had a pulse on the markets.
So on Friday when the races at Wolverhampton were coming up, I felt good enough about the afternoon to take on the evening card.
But knowing the week had gone well and a fraction of the bank was poised for 'take away', I decided to take the each way angle and, in a sense, play it safe while challenging myself to find a good priced winner.
Jumbo Prada did run well, finishing in the frame after an early challenge. Track regular Lean On Pete was 5F in the market but hit the frame. But the last race, I had Atlantic Beach and the fave, Sunrise Dance 'rated' but the value didn't work out and the former disappointed.
The evening more or less broke even but finished the week on a decent note.
More and more, I will employ 'overall' strategies as game plans when looking at the cards and subsequently my wagering. I do know that if I make the effort to first put lines through races, thus removing a lot of distractions and noise, THEN look at the balance, those days have had better results.
Your views on how you approach the race day are more than welcome
UPDATE: All selections are up. Good luck with your day
WEAK FAVES FOR 26-February
none
Early Price:
STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK
Catterick
2:50 Iron Butterfly EW (result 4th) -1.00
4:50 The Fox's Decree (1st BFSP 2.90) +1.80
Leicester
2:30 Be My Deputy EW (1st BFSP 6.60/2.22) +3.25
Lingfield
3:10 Fonterutoli (6th) -1.00
3:40 Mack's Sister EW (---) -1.00
5:10 Broxbourne (1st BFSP 2.02) +1.00
SUMMARY 3 winners from 6 selections (50% strike rate) though Fonterutoli a disappointment. A risk of 6 points returns a LSP profit of +3.05 (50% ROI)
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SHAPESHIFTER'S WORLD
Comments: 4
Hi Pinza,
re: One spends time wondering how many races can a class 6 runner win before weight catches up with them (Al's Memory, Broxbourne,Bussa etc)
I went through that today with Broxbourne, in this case the distance (posting this to the race).
I've done well with AW but checked my 'books' and tend to always do well in January. On the flat, I'm preparing more than previous years (i.e. checking my standards / looking what tracks I did well at / races I seem to do better in).
So many factors this time of year with weather, going, cancellations screwing up placement by trainers who then need to keep their horses busy and take 'any race'.
Thus why if even an OUNCE of doubt, will pass on the race and even the track.
re: One spends time wondering how many races can a class 6 runner win before weight catches up with them (Al's Memory, Broxbourne,Bussa etc)
I went through that today with Broxbourne, in this case the distance (posting this to the race).
I've done well with AW but checked my 'books' and tend to always do well in January. On the flat, I'm preparing more than previous years (i.e. checking my standards / looking what tracks I did well at / races I seem to do better in).
So many factors this time of year with weather, going, cancellations screwing up placement by trainers who then need to keep their horses busy and take 'any race'.
Thus why if even an OUNCE of doubt, will pass on the race and even the track.
I did a similar review of my bets a year or two ago. Saturday turned out to be my bogey day. Probably too many meetings? Also Listed races.
Doubt! Surely an ounce of doubt in every bet?
Good luck in last.
Doubt! Surely an ounce of doubt in every bet?
Good luck in last.
re: Doubt! Surely an ounce of doubt in every bet?
Well, perhaps 2 ounces and I'll pull the plug;
The first ounce is every horse that leaves the stalls has a chance to win. This is coupled with the expression "every horse has it's day" (note 159/1 winner today with Cara Court).
But I work hard to eliminate the 2nd ounce ; )
Broxbourne landed on a decent day.
Well, perhaps 2 ounces and I'll pull the plug;
The first ounce is every horse that leaves the stalls has a chance to win. This is coupled with the expression "every horse has it's day" (note 159/1 winner today with Cara Court).
But I work hard to eliminate the 2nd ounce ; )
Broxbourne landed on a decent day.
The low grade racing makes it more difficult to assess than say class 3 and above.
One spends time wondering how many races can a class 6 runner win before weight catches up with them (Al's Memory, Broxbourne,Bussa etc)
It would be easier if racing was cancelled and one could get on with analysis for flat season.
The same applies to Betfair Community Forums and Blogs. They take up time but provide amusement and interest. Roll on the Flat, but even that doesn't really start until May.