SHAPESHIFTER

January had been 'easy' with no heavy streak of losses, several each-ways returning dividend until winners came in. The first two weeks of February were the opposite. At one point I went 14 selections where no money was coming back to me. It came down to a combination of bad race selection and then even worse selections. Last week, win or lose, at least I felt like I had a pulse on the markets. So on Friday when the races at Wolverhampton were coming up, I felt good enough about the afternoon to take on the evening card. But knowing the week had gone well and a fraction of the bank was poised for 'take away', I decided to take the each way angle and, in a sense, play it safe while challenging myself to find a good priced winner. Jumbo Prada did run well, finishing in...

I have a handful of angles that I use to look for solid each way plays. It stems from the approach that I use to find 'weak faves' where I find horses that are fave's but when I look over their recent race history, they didn't compete against a quality field. While doing this, I try to find the support for the lay, as well, giving the play depth and, at the same time, will often find a value EW play. Yesterday, it was Blue Deer which I ranked better than Captain Kendall. On watching the race, Luke Morris knew what he had to do during the first few furlongs and achieved it and, against my ratings, improved by 2 lengths over the distance while Blue Deer raced around 1/2 length slower over the distance than I expected. Add the two together and that is the margin between an EW at...

Based on comments and messages I receive, the focus remains that this is simply about laying a horse. First, yes, it is the premise since I am saying that, based on the horses performance on previous races and the competition it faced, it is selected since I see factors that say it is taking on a stronger field and/or conditions that won't suit. Secondly, I put up my figures based on laying the horse. This allows perspective. But I still feel the better returns can be found if you ever are able to put a line through the early fave and work through the form from there. The risk can often be less and the return potential be more, even if dutching two or three in the field. The key is value over the long term. [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 9-OCTOBER[/b] Selections based on the quality...

Tuesday afternoon was a boost. Monday had been an 'overload' of racing where I had thirteen selections over all the cards, landing ten correctly. Despite being slightly woggle-eyed from the bank holiday bombardment, I felt fresh to take on Tuesday's racing. Two of the afternoon lays were reassuring that my approach on finding 'weak faves' was going in the right direction. Signor Sassi had dominated the betting and moved into 9/4 at the off with the next best being 7/1. It had been roughly the same line in the morning and when you see a spread between the fave and the rest of the field, you can imagine punters following the 'sign post' without actually knowing where they were going. Signor Sassi eventtually came in second when the 'extra' that was asked of the horse wasn't ...

Shortly after the first two horses won yesterday, I received a message asking if Kelly's Eye is a back or a lay. Granted, it was followed by a 'wink' but it shows you how you have to hold firm to your approach. It is so easily to have your confidence shaken and the doubts come in. All the psychology that trickles in with two bad calls to start your week. Though the next two calls were successful, it did weigh on my approach to the evening. I had been fence sitting on whether to take on Carlisle and the lady jockeys but with mixed results to date at the track, I decided to glance at the card but leave it for the night. Having a 100% record on Wolverhampton, I went through the cards and settled on one play for the evening, the conservative approach definitely because of the ...

Yesterday, the 3:30 at Musselburgh went from 10 declared to just 4 runners at post time. I had flagged up Houston Dynimo as a 'weak fave' To clarify what a 'weak fave' is, I first create a selection of horses by looking at the quality of the fields of their previous races. So if a horse beats a field that show bad performances subsequent to that day, then they are on the long list that is then looked at closer before being targeted as a 'weak fave'. This is a judgement call solely on their abilities though both trainer and jockey records are brought into play. From there, if one was to consider backing a 'weak fave' (it is, of course, a sport of opinions), then a conservative bet might be in order. Another option is to take on the 'weak fave' with another runner in the race,...