SHAPESHIFTER

I have a handful of angles that I use to look for solid each way plays. 

It stems from the approach that I use to find 'weak faves' where I find horses that are fave's but when I look over their recent race history, they didn't compete against a quality field.

While doing this, I try to find the support for the lay, as well, giving the play depth and, at the same time, will often find a value EW play.  Yesterday, it was Blue Deer which I ranked better than Captain Kendall.  On watching the race, Luke Morris knew what he had to do during the first few furlongs and achieved it and, against my ratings, improved by 2 lengths over the distance while Blue Deer raced around 1/2 length slower over the distance than I expected.  Add the two together and that is the margin between an EW at 19/2 beating your lay or your EW recouping a fraction of what you lost on a drifting fave you took on.

Another race, I missed a clear, value play. 

In the 3:25 at Doncaster, I took backed Soudain to improve slightly and add to a margin I saw over Grey Missile.  My selection did beat the Nick Scholfield horse but was 4 1/2 lengths behind the winner, Back Bob Back.

When I did the post mortem, I looked again at Back Bob Back which had been 5/1+ in the morning.  The reason for the win glared at me in a blink yet, for whatever reason, hadn't registered the night before;

On Back Bob Back's previous run at Newbury, it had finished 10th by 25 lengths.

But since the 30th of November, the horses that ran that day had raced 15 times prior to yesterday.  The results:

4 wins
4 2nds
and 3 3rds

Newbury form travels well and, when looking at races in general, the context of where a horse finished has to be put into perspective rather than looking at the number that appears in the form, in Back Bob Back's case being "10th".




UPDATES Kempton complete.  Best of luck with your evening

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WEAK FAVES FOR 10-January

None


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Catterick
1:45 Funky Munky EW (result: 1st BFSP 11.00/3.10) +6.30
2:15 Lively Baron EW(8th) -1.00

Kempton
5:45 Entitlement (1st BFSP 3.00) +2.00
6:15 Pahente EW (1st BFSP 9.20/3.06) +4.90
6:45 Lowther (1st BFSP 4.74) +3.60


SUMMARY A complete turn-around from Wednesday with 4 of 5 horses winning and only one fave selected.  A LSP risk of 5 points would have returned a profit of  +15.80 (315% ROI)




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