SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday, the 3:30 at Musselburgh went from 10 declared to just 4 runners at post time.  I had flagged up Houston Dynimo as a 'weak fave'

To clarify what a 'weak fave' is, I first create a selection of horses by looking at the quality of the fields of their previous races.  So if a horse beats a field that show bad performances subsequent to that day, then they are on the long list that is then looked at closer before being targeted as a 'weak fave'.

This is a judgement call solely on their abilities though both trainer and jockey records are brought into play.

From there, if one was to consider backing a 'weak fave' (it is, of course, a sport of opinions), then a conservative bet might be in order.

Another option is to take on the 'weak fave' with another runner in the race, perhaps an each-way play on a longer odds horse.

But If one was to consider laying, then it's a matter of also finding two or three horses to support the play. It's always easy to say "this horse isn't going to win".  It is another to find the the horses that will support that view, even if it is one of the field that you think will set a pace that will make the early going difficult for your lay.

That doesn't change my view that Houston Dynimo was a 'weak fave'.  But, by post time, the complexion of the race had changed since noon.  So the decision on how to play the race, whether back, oppose, lay or pass on the event would have to be weighed out again.

Like a football manager with several game plans for the first 45 minutes, it is necessary to monitor how things are unfolding and adjust accordingly when the complexion of the event changes.


WEAK FAVES based on the quality of the fields in previous races:

CATTERICK
2:00 Grievous Angel
4:30 Oakbrook

LINGFIELD
2:10 Just Past Andover
4:10 Tis Rock 'n' Roll
4:40 Pharoh Jake

RESULT 80% on the day but the week is lacking 'momentum'. Grievous Angel just beaten into second while Pharoh Jake was flagged up a second time in a month (will post more on this tomorrow).

Catterick's July strike-rate is 60% (6 for 10).  And though Lingfield is 85% (6 for 7), there have been three horses finishing second.