SHAPESHIFTER

Tuesday afternoon was a boost.  Monday had been an 'overload' of racing where I had thirteen selections over all the cards, landing ten correctly.

Despite being slightly woggle-eyed from the bank holiday bombardment, I felt fresh to take on Tuesday's racing.

Two of the afternoon lays were reassuring that my approach on finding 'weak faves' was going in the right direction. 

Signor Sassi had dominated the betting and moved into 9/4 at the off with the next best being 7/1.  It had been roughly the same line in the morning and when you see a spread between the fave and the rest of the field, you can imagine punters following the 'sign post' without actually knowing where they were going.  Signor Sassi eventtually came in second when the 'extra' that was asked of the horse wasn't in the engine.

Which leads into the next selection, Stand For Glory, that went off in a 5 furlong, 4 runner race at 4/6. 

Often these races are a 'bookies' dream.  The punter will see the fave, just three other runners and perceive this as 'no competition'.  But I saw it as a fave that hadn't taken on a strong field.

And the race panned out exactly as I read it.  The slightest undulations and give in the Ripon course seemed to affect Stand For Glory and the horse laboured to keep up with the early leader becoming one-paced as the race progressed.


The market can be intimidating and can often sway you away from taking on a horse.  It can also make you steer away from a horse you want to back when you find it is 17/1 in the market with the money going elsewhere.

It comes down to the psychology and mind-set that you have more confidence in your views than the market does.   

WEAK FAVES FOR 29-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Carlisle: 1 meeting: 2 for 6 (33%) *meeting in June
Catterick Bridge: 5 meetings: 7 for 11 (64%)
Worcester: 1 meeting: 1 for 1 (100%)


CARLISLE
3:30 Samarkand (result: 5th of 7)
4:00 Hydrant (4th of 10)

CATTERICK BRIDGE
3:40 Idler (8th of 9)
4:10 Llewellyn (4th of 10)
5:45 On The High Tops (3rd)

WORCESTER
2:20 Nodforms Violet (2nd/nk)
4:20 Trendelenburg (2nd/3L)
4:50 Round Tom (2nd/7L)
5:20 Latest Trend (4th of 8)

After reviewing the races and runners, there are some plenty of races with strong EW potential at Catterick and Worcester.  The 'stand out' ones for me:

Catterick 3:40 (result: won by industry SP 3F)
Worcester: 4:50 and 5:20 (result: 2F beat my weak fave in the 4:20) (5:20 winner was 17.0 BFSP)

Stand-out recommendation to back:
Carlisle: 4:30 Oddysey (result: 3rd of 5...reached 1.72 in running)




SUMMARY: a clean sheet day with nine for nine favorites.  Of the nine horses that were early fave's, eight remained favourites at SP, the exception being Nodforms Violet which went off at 3/1.


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