SHAPESHIFTER

Based on comments and messages I receive, the focus remains that this is simply about laying a horse.

First, yes, it is the premise since I am saying that, based on the horses performance on previous races and the competition it faced, it is selected since I see factors that say it is taking on a stronger field and/or conditions that won't suit.

Secondly, I put up my figures based on laying the horse.  This allows perspective.

But I still feel the better returns can be found if you ever are able to put a line through the early fave and work through the form from there.

The risk can often be less and the return potential be more, even if dutching two or three in the field.

The key is value over the long term.


WEAK FAVES FOR 9-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Brighton: 9 meetings. 20 for 23 (87%)
Catterick: 6 meetings. 10 for 14 (71%)
Leicester: 4 meetings 8 for 9 (89%)
Wolverhampton: 11 meetings. 21 for 24 (87%)

BRIGHTON
2:50 Scepticism (result: 3rd)

Early Price: Scepticism 4.20

CATTERICK
2:00 Mixed Message (result: 1st BFSP 4.80)
3:30 George Rooke (1st BFSP 3.20)

Early Price: Mixed Message 4.40 / George Rooke 4.00

LEICESTER
3:10 Priestleys Reward (4th of 7)
4:10 Burnham (2nd by a head) *drifted to 6/1 +

Early price: Priestleys Reward 3.80 / Burnham 4.70

SUMMARY 3 for 5 on the day.  Both horses that won yesterday came at Catterick.  George Rooke was put under some pressure but never faded while Mixed Message won after first looking to fade from contention then winning on a different line than the rest of the field.

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

CATTERICK
4:00 Blue Dune (1st BFSP 2.48) +1.48

LEICESTER
2:40 Gull Rock (1st BFSP 5.20) +4.20

SUMMARY Two for two on the day including Blue Dune who, after leading last week by six or seven lengths, faded on a race of 2 miles 1/2 furlong, won over a distance 50 yards shy of 2 miles.  LSP of 2 pts would return +5.70 (285%) bringing the week to +1.70


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