SHAPESHIFTER

A few days ago, someone messaged that he had noticed a fair number of the 'weak faves' come in second and wondered if I had stats against BFSP for backing.

Well, yes, in percentage terms, the number of 2nds has increased from 16% in July (17 out of 109 races) to 27% in August (22/83) and since I watch as many of the races is possible, the underlying stat is how many races I held my breath this month has also increased.

Overall, the percentage of horses in August have that won or placed (including betfair markets i.e. 8 on the card, one NR makes 7 running the race but betfair still pay first 3) has increased since July.

July: 55 of 108 had placed in races with place markets (51%)

So far in August: 52 of 83 (61%)

Infact, yesterday, including the winning horse, 6 of 7 horses finished in the place market.

In July, backing all 'weak faves' to place with 1 pt would have lost around 4 pts over the the 108 races.

Including yesterday, August place backs  would have returned 10 pts over the 83 races (13% ROI).

So does it make sense to BACK a 'weak fave' in the place market?

Though I don't want to go into extensive analysis, I do classify each race I take on and am able to see where my strengths and weaknesses are.  So if you were to take the time to create your own analysis and eliminate races, then perhaps (For Brighton, Perth and Yarmouth combined, of the 29 races to date that had place markets, 12 horses won or placed).

And it doesn't go against my premise that a 'weak fave' is a horse that, based on previous fields it raced against, won't win the race.

How you use the selections is, of course, your choice.  For me, I couldn't back them for a place. If not laying the horse, it means putting a line through a 'weak fave' then finding the each way play in the race. 

But ultimately it is up to the individual and what their perception of what is value and offers up a reasonable return on investment.


WEAK FAVES FOR 21-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Brighton: 5 meetings: 11 for 13 (85%)
Perth: 1 meeting: 1 for 2 (50%)
Yarmouth: 5 meetings: 13 for 15 (87%)

BRIGHTON
3:15 Amistress result: 5th of 9
3:45 Between Us 1st (2.17 BFSP)
4:45 Ridgeway Sapphire 5th of 10
5:15 Ooi Long 5th of 7

PERTH
3:25 Jamsie Hall 2nd

YARMOUTH
3:35 Authentication 4th of 7
4:35 Sanad 9th of 11

RESULT: A second day in a row of 6 of 7 (86%).  Between Us led from the moment the stalls opened to win by 4 lengths (BFSP 2.17).  Indluding Between Us, only 2 horses finished in the frame.  I only had one stand-out selection from Perth which came in 2nd.  Of the other six races at the meeting, 5 of the 'early priced faves' won. 

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