Results for tag: Perth
Posted by:
SHAPESHIFTER
on Sep 27, 2012 at 01:34:38 PM
Last night, the 6:20 was a race where watching the market could lead to more profit than simply laying a horse that you think is going to lose.
I had identified Henry Clay as a 'weak fave'.
With three non-runners, there were now eight runners left.
I watched the market and the support continued to come for Henry Blake moving in from 4's to 3.50. Of the other seven runners, there was no significant movement for the ten or fifteen minutes leading up to the race with all the horses remaining close to the prices they had been for the two hours leading up.
With my doubts on the fave, laying for a point would mean a risk of 2.50 points or a 40% return.
But with no movement and eight runners, my attention turned to the 2F, Positive who had been steady in the betting.
The horse...
Posted by:
SHAPESHIFTER
on Sep 26, 2012 at 01:16:55 PM
Yesterday shows how this world can swing around. After ten days of sub-par results, I landed six for six over the three tracks and ending the day with a success streak of ten selections in a row.
I stayed close to the approach I have used which is to look at the competition that the horses have had and gauge from there. Speed ratings was the 'final tick' that rated Colourist behind Starlight Angel and Secretori in a four runner race.
I selected Tiger Webb for a second time this month. Both times, the horse went off at 5/2 and both times was unplaced, yesterday finishing 8th of 12.
I had doubts on thecornishcowboy winning at 5/4 in the morning, but I passed having successfully selected it earlier this year. The horse went onto win by a neck over Titus Bolt.
And despite betting...
Posted by:
SHAPESHIFTER
on Aug 21, 2012 at 12:40:41 PM
A few days ago, someone messaged that he had noticed a fair number of the 'weak faves' come in second and wondered if I had stats against BFSP for backing.
Well, yes, in percentage terms, the number of 2nds has increased from 16% in July (17 out of 109 races) to 27% in August (22/83) and since I watch as many of the races is possible, the underlying stat is how many races I held my breath this month has also increased.
Overall, the percentage of horses in August have that [u]won or placed[/u] (including betfair markets i.e. 8 on the card, one NR makes 7 running the race but betfair still pay first 3) has increased since July.
July: 55 of 108 had placed in races with place markets (51%)
So far in August: 52 of 83 (61%)
Infact, yesterday, including the winning horse, 6 of ...
Posted by:
SHAPESHIFTER
on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:38:03 AM
I finished the month with 4 for 6 on Tuesday, both horses that won at Ayr. I'll have to take a closer look at Ayr, especially since the only two faves that won on Tuesday were among the three I flagged up as 'weak'. However, the average BFSP (Betfair SP) of the 3 horses that won this week is 2.6 (6/4) which is below my overall average price of losers.
I was pleased with Beverley where I was 1 for 1 on a day. This is because 3 of 7 faves won yesterday meaning my read to "pass" on those races was correct. I only had two selections over two meetings in July, so a good example that less can offer steady returns.
I often find major meetings intimidating. The cards are stacked with the best trainers and jockeys teaming up on the best horses. So when both selections came in, ...