SHAPESHIFTER

Last night, the 6:20 was a race where watching the market could lead to more profit than simply laying a horse that you think is going to lose.

I had identified Henry Clay as a 'weak fave'.

With three non-runners, there were now eight runners left.

I watched the market and the support continued to come for Henry Blake moving in from 4's to 3.50. Of the other seven runners, there was no significant movement for the ten or fifteen minutes leading up to the race with all the horses remaining close to the prices they had been for the two hours leading up.

With my doubts on the fave, laying for a point would mean a risk of 2.50 points or a 40% return.

But with no movement and eight runners, my attention turned to the 2F, Positive who had been steady in the betting.

The horse was just inside my each way cut off of 5/1.  So half my risk for the race, 1.25 points, went on at 5.60.

I then scanned my notes and the balance of 1.25 went EW on Asatir and Silvestre De Sousa.

So 2.50 risked, the same amount I would have invested in taking on Henry Clay.

The result:
Asatir -1.25
Positive 5.75
NET: 4.50

So roughly four times as much made on the same event.

It isn't always this way but if the betting has remained steady and defined and you have the reads in front of you, it's a matter of making a profit from "putting a line through a horse" rather than laying it.

And the psychology on it is that if both Henry Clay and the two selections lost, your loss is 2.50 points and not to think of it as a missed opportunity to lay a horse. 

- - -

I have posted the 'early prices' that are the readings I took between 11 and 12 when my long list becomes short.  But to keep performance in perspective, I will continue to present the Betfair SP with results. 

How you use and/or calculate the returns of any or all of the selections would be up to you.


WEAK FAVES FOR 27-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Newmarket: 3 meetings: 6 for 8 (75%)
Perth: 3 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)
Pontefract: 2 meetings: 5 for 6 (83%)
Wolverhampton: 9 meetings: 20 for 23 (87%)

Newmarket:
4:15 Cavalryman (2nd by 2 and 1/4 lengths)
4:50 Crown Counsel (5th of11)
5:25 Ladyship (2nd by 1 length)

Early Prices: Cavalryman 3.80 / Crown Counsel 5.00 / Ladyship 3.85


Perth
5:05 The Magic Bishop (2nd by 15 L)

Early Prices: The Magic Bishop 4.00

Pontefract
2:55 Mad Jazz (1st BFSP 3.10)
3:30 Kellys Eye(1st BFSP 3.72)
5:15 Hyperlink (5th of 8)

Early Prices: Mad Jazz 3.70 / 3:30 Kellys Eye 4.70 / Hyperlink 4.60

SUMMARY: 5 for 7 on the day with both horses that won at Pontefract.

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Newmarket (R)
3:40 Havana Gold (1st) +1.40

Pontefract
2:20 Surge Ahead EW (1st BFSP 4.94 / 1.85) +2.40

SUMMARY: A 2 for 2 day backing horses bringing the week into profit with a strike-rate of 3 for 6 (50%)

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