SHAPESHIFTER

I finished the month with 4 for 6 on Tuesday, both horses that won at Ayr.  I'll have to take a closer look at Ayr, especially since the only two faves that won on Tuesday were among the three I flagged up as 'weak'. However, the average BFSP (Betfair SP) of the 3 horses that won this week is 2.6 (6/4) which is below my overall average price of losers. 

I was pleased with Beverley where I was 1 for 1 on a day.  This is because 3 of 7 faves won yesterday meaning my read to "pass" on those races was correct.  I only had two selections over two meetings in July, so a good example that less can offer steady returns.   

I often find major meetings intimidating. The cards are stacked with the best trainers and jockeys teaming up on the best horses.  So when both selections came in, I was pleased with the result and a bit of a boost to the month.

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The month was consistently around 80% with 87 of 109 'weak faves' losing their race.  Of the 87 that didn't win, 62% (54) were unplaced.

For those that won, the average BFSP was 3.60 (13/5).

Even with my previous data, with just over 100 races in July, there isn't enough races to determine the best tracks, distances, trainers, etc to 'fine tune' my approach to finding 'weak faves'.

As well, it isn't just about finding "faves to lay". It is also an approach to find put a line through a horse on the card that encourages you to look for value in the rest of the field. In the four races where the 'weak faves' didn't win, the winners paid (BFSP) 5.40 (3rd fave), 8.40 (3F), 4.20 (2F) and 25.00.

And, as punters, pundits and myself have all been talking about, the weather played a role on racing that is usually reserved for October and November making for an unusual opening quarter to the flat season. 

I also don't want to over think the process and create so many filters and conditions that I end up passing on too many selections.  I've learnt not to be 'rigid' in my approach and since the core of this is to first use traditional methods of form reading, an open mind must be used to approach each race.

If I take three things into August from the start:

- focus on the task at hand is needed when making your selections

- even the briefest of notes on why (or why not) helps with post-result analysis

- And the mantra "there is always another horse race" is key to passing on an event rather than making one that feels forced afterwards.


WEAK FAVES FOR 1-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

REDCAR
2:50 Legal Bond
4:00 Voice From Above
4:35 Kalk Bay

LEICESTER (posted at 5:27)
6:45 Crown Dependency
7:15 Barkis

PERTH
8:00 Red Kingdom
9:00 Solis

RESULTS: a clean sheet at Leicester but the read on Kalk Bay was off to win the race after drifting to BFSP 9.80. Red Kingdom won at just over evens.

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