SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday was the the second day in a row of getting 6 for 7 selections right.  The exception was Tidal Wave who won at Brighton at 2.88 BFSP.  However, unlike the day before where six selections finished outside the frame,  five finished in the top three.

I took on Varnish with Richard Hughes on board for the 6th time.  The four recent rides had produced a win and three 2nds.  As well, the previous day, the Hannon/Hughes partnership had produced two of the jockey's three wins at the track.  But the read indicated to me that yesterday would not only be a challenging step up in distance but, to date, previous fields hadn't produced decent results since racing with Varnish.  Racing mid-field, the combination of distance and competition proved too much and the horse tailed off in the final furlong finishing well behind the eventual winner.

The result at Yarmouth was excellent but not because of the perfect 4 for 4 on selections. For me, it was because of the seven early faves (not necessarily the faves at the off), the two that won their races were among the three I passed on. 

I hadn't done a read in the past two months at Haydock, so I approached the race with caution.  I produced a list of three but only went with Cape Rising.  An interesting stat from the meeting:  of the eight early market faves at the course, NONE won their race.  So going with all three would have produced positive results but unlike Yarmouth, it wouldn't have produced a true gauge on how well the 'weak fave' approach would work at the track.

WEAK FAVES FOR 10-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Brighton: 4 meetings: 10 for 12 (83%)
Lingfield: 5 meetings: 12 for 13 (92%)
Musselburgh: 3 meetings: 1 for 3 (33%)

BRIGHTON
4:40 Thecornishcowboy

LINGFIELD
3:20 Imjin River
4:20 Duke Of Destiny

MUSSELBURGH
3:30 Bradbury
5:00 Military Call

RESULT: 4 for 5 on the day, the winner being Duke Of Destiny (BFSP 2.90). The first two days of the week was well below average on performance (9 for 14 - 64%).  The last three days was 16 for 19 bringing the strike rate for the week up to 76%.

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