SHAPESHIFTER

Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM

Monday, 17-September

I enjoyed Doncaster. The racing remained top-notch right through to the final furlongs and all the speculation and results gave racers and pundits plenty to chat about. 

Watching J P O'Brien reminded me of how exciting sports was as both a spectator and a participant when I was the same age.  I had my share of moments from sailing, ice hockey, soccer and golf.  I walked away with trophies in everything I did and was privileged to tour as an amateur golfer for three summers from eighteen to twenty. 

But to see that young man with such a responsibility hold his composure both during the heat of the race and afterwards was pretty special.

With most major meets, I find betting over the first couple of days is easier to find decent value.  After two days, the markets are more defined and both bookmakers and the public are more savvy.  I also found that, as with all major events, using the expression 'weak faves' is, at time, not appropriate since all the horses, favourites or otherwise, are pretty incredible beasts.

And with the flat season winding down and the jumps and hurdles being set up on a more daily basis, I'll be carefully treading into the fall with selections.  Granted, I'm confident about my reads and speed ratings for all weather, but I have never relied solely on Lingfield, Kempton and Wolverhampton to fill my days.


WEAK FAVES FOR 17-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Brighton: 7 meetings: 17 for 20 (85%)
Musselburgh: 5 meetings: 6 for 9 (67%)
Wolverhampton: 7 meetings: 19 for 20 (95%)

Brighton
3:20 Lunar Deity (result: 2nd)
3:50 Lisselan Pleasure (7th of 9)

Musselburgh
2:10 Goninodaethat (6th of 9)
3:10 Lea Valley Black (1st: BFSP 2.98)
5:40 Hawdyerwheesht (1st: BFSP 5.20)

Wolverhampton
3:00 Progenitor (2nd)
4:30 Invigilator (1st: BFSP 5.90)
5:30 Volcanic Jack (4th of 11)

SUMMARY 5 for 8 for the day (63%).  Lea Valley Black remained favourite and won by two lengths while Invigilator and Hawdyerwheesht both went off 2F

Stand-out recommendations to back:

Musselburgh
3:40 La Bacouetteuse EW (Result: 9th of 10) -1.00
4:40 Just Lille EW (1st: 4.30) +1.90 (had been available at 5/1 around 1PM)
5:40 Operateur EW (5th of 13) -1.00

Wolverhampton
3:00 Autumn Snow EW (9th of 11) -1.00
5:00 Maltease Ah (4th of13) -1.00

SUMMARY: One winner on the day, Just Lille, who was supported into 3/1 and beating 11/10 favourite, Kay Gee Be by 3/4 of a length. 5 points wagered with a return of -2.10



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