SHAPESHIFTER

Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM

Tuesday, 18-September


Over the past few weeks, I noticed that despite having the opinion that certain horses were 'weak faves', most remained favourites in the market.  Monday was the opposite.

UK racing looked like it was suffering a post-Doncaster hang-over.  All day, the markets were changing as punters tried to form opinions on horses whose ratings were closer to my age than usual.  And come race time, again, the movements were very apparent and sometimes surprising.

I watched the markets throughout the day and only on a handful of occasions was the money right.  And, in my case, despite both having solid drifts, two of the 'weak faves' won their race.

It was also more apparent than on other days that 'the support' for the calls wasn't there.  As the horses rounded the final bend at Wolverhampton, several were in contention for the 2 furlong dash to the line.  But suddenly, the front of the pack looked like it ran into mud and only one emerged with 'weak fave' selection, Progenitor, upping the pace for the line. In the end, Progenitor came second to Aeronwyn Bryn (BFSP 18.00) but it summed up the quality of the racing on the day.

Brighton maintained consistency with both calls being successful while Invigilator fired past the well supported Majestic Breeze at Wolverhampton to dent the returns at the track.  Musselburgh was a disappointing one for three on the day.

With the five backs, Just Lille proved to be the only success of the day.  I flagged it up as an each way call when it floated at 5/1.  But by race time, it had moved into 3/1 and beating 11/10 favourite, Kay Gee Be.  A 20% strike-rate means that 5 points wagered produced a loss of about -2.10


WEAK FAVES FOR 18-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Folkestone: 1 meeting: 3 for 3 (100%)
Thirsk: 3 meetings: 6 for 8 (75%)
Yarmouth: 6 meetings: 15 for 17 (88%)

Folkestone
3:50 Diamond Belle (Result: 4th of 4)
4:50 Enery (1st: BFSP 4.80)
5:20 Thecornishcowboy (2nd)

Thirsk
3:10 Lokis Strike (9th of 13)

Yarmouth
4:00 Sirius Prospect (3rd of 5)
4:30 Bubbly Ballerina (2nd by 1 1/2 L)
5:30 Malekov (1st: BFSP 7.30)

SUMMARY 6 for 8 on the day (75%).


Stand-out recommendations to back:

Thirsk
3:40 Comrade Bond EW (Result: 3rd: BFSP 12.94 / 3.02) +0.50

Yarmouth
5:00 Willie Wag Tail (3rd) -1.00
5:30 Suzi's a Class EW (2nd)  +0.13

SUMMARY Strike rate of 2 for 3 paying dividends but not enough to turn a profit.  3 points risked produced a loss of -0.37

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