SHAPESHIFTER

Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM


Thursday, 20-September

I've accepted the ups and downs that go with the world of gambling (Wednesday - 4 for 8 on 'weak fave' selections).  This is mainly down to learning to subdue any periods when I felt like I had the "midas touch' when every selection in every sport comes together as planned.  It helps keep a perspective on the overall rather than 'the moment'.

It means having to remained focused. 

I used to have to do that when I played golf.  When I had a bad hole, I would pause and leave it behind me before I hit the next tee shot.  I then had to notch up my focus rather than let that bad hole suck me in.

I also don't allow 'luck' to come into my mindset.  Okay, yes, there are moments when something happens in an event that affects an outcome.  But every time you place a wager, you need to accept that 'luck', good, bad or otherwise, could be part of the outcome.

My relationship with wagering on horses comes down to the reads.  I 'visualize' the outcome.  I look at the form, the distance, the races the horses I target have been in and 'picture' the race unfolding.  I did that with Rocket Rob.  I had the figures, the notes from previous races and a good overview of the field.  I knew the start and early furlongs would be the way they were.  And through calculation, I pictured Rocket Rob behind a pace set by Aye Aye Digby and Macdillon leaving no room for error in the middle sectionals to win, the expected slow start carrying an extra burden with the step back to five furlongs.

Well, I was 99.99% right.  Every aspect that I pictured in the read came together...except the finish.  That .01% was a 1/2 length which is roughly a tenth of a second over 1100 yards of race. 

In post-mortem, I decided that tenth of a second was William Buick.  I've watched enough racing to know that his ability to 'anticipate' is top notch and made up for mid-race position Rocket Rob ran into.

I wrote this a few weeks ago when I had flagged up Main Sequence as a 'weak fave' at York;

I equally enjoyed the 3:05.  Yes, Main Sequence was held in second.  But, for me, it was the ride by William Buick on Thought Worthy that was the hilite. 

I watched the final stages several times last night.  As Thought Worthy lead into the tight, final corner, Buick timed the moment perfectly knowing that the distance between himself and the pack wouldn't allow them to see him giving the initial, subtle kick to accelerate earlier than expected.  Thought Worthy rose to the task and accelerated through the corner holding the line perfectly with the same enthusiasm as a horse entering the straight.  It was an incredible, incredible tactical move by Buick as well as genuine team work between rider and horse.

That 'hidden' move to kick a moment earlier than expected was the difference between winning by a length and losing by four.

So as I flip through the balance of 'post mortems', I'll find where the reads were spot on and where the obvious was right there in front of me and will strive to factor it into future plays.

And, with a bit of luck, I'll get back on track.

- - -
Again, I was pleased with the selections to back.  These are horses that stand out when I am going through the fave's in the morning.  Win selections are more than likely horses that have raced well in competitive races and when looking at the field, I can't see the danger.  Each way's are horses who appear to have consistent performances and/or decent figures with my ratings.

Both each way selections paid dividends yesterday giving a return of +3.25 from 4 points wagered.

- - -

Yesterday's racing featured two jockey stories:

Richard Hughes landed six winners out of thirteen races at Sandown and Kempton.  Blindly wagering would have returned a 100% return on the day.

Meanwhile, Freddy Tylicki had three runs at Yarmouth and almost landed a treble involving three different trainers that would have paid £19,000 on a one pound wager at SP.  After winning on on Semayyel (BFSP 592) and Emerald Wilderness (48.30), he came in second on Stone Of Folca behind My Propeller and Frankie Dettori.

If you blindly backed Richard Hughes on his 674 rides in 2012, at SP you would be down £26.  Blindly backing Freddy Tylicki for his 369 rides.....£111 for a 30% ROI.



WEAK FAVES FOR 20-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Kempton: 6 meetings: 11 for 14 (79%)
Pontefract: 1 meeting: 4 for 4 (100%)
Yarmouth: 7 meetings: 18 for 23 (78%)

Kempton
If there are any selections, they will be posted before race time.

Pontefract
3:30 Desert Romance (Result: 3rd)
4:00 Misplaced Fortune (1st BFSP 9.46) *drifted from 4's at noon to 4F in the market

Yarmouth
3:20 East Texas Red (3rd of 6)
4:20 Montaser (2nd by 3/4 L)
5:20 Saloomy (2nd of 5)

SUMMARY 4 out of 5 on the day.  East Texas Red was backed heavily right up to the stalls opening but was never a threat. Misplaced Fortune won after drifting from 7/2 out to 8/1 +.  Yes, drifters do win.

Stand-out recommendations to back:

Pontefract
3:30 Fastnet Storm EW (Result: 2nd BFSP 23 / 5.78) +1.90

Yarmouth
4:50 Candycakes EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY: A profitable day of backing despite no 'winner' with Fastnet Storm drifting from 10/1 out to 22/1 before the off then finishing a solid second.  2 points wagered would have returned +0.90 (45% ROI)


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